Hello, everyone, and welcome to the March Market Compass. We are now three months into 2025, and so far, there's been no shortage of headlines. Driving markets, trade policy uncertainty, and signs of an emerging soft patch in the US economy have taken some wind out of the market's sails.
US stocks are still about 10% higher from a year ago but have given back some gains, and volatility has increased. But along with volatility, diversification has also made a comeback, which is good news for those investors that own a diverse set of investments. In this Market Compass episode, we'll provide some perspective on the rotations or changes in market leadership that are underway. We'll discuss what is changing and why it matters for investors.
A key theme this year is the broadening of market leadership, with several rotations taking place at the sector level, investment style, and across geographies. But before we dive into these rotations, let's take a step back and consider the macroeconomic backdrop and how it is evolving. Over the past two years, we've had several quarters where the US economy grew more than 3%, faster than its long-term potential, which is thought to be about 2%, and faster than other major economies.
The US consumer has been the main driving force, aided by excess savings and solid income gains. Government spending has also boosted growth but led to high deficits. In the private sector, the launch of ChatGPT back in late 2022 fueled a wave of excitement around artificial intelligence. So plenty of tailwinds have helped drive two back-to-back years of more than 20% gains per year for US stocks.
Now, a lot of this support still remains, but the bar of expectations has risen, making it harder to exceed it, which is why markets have been mostly rangebound over the past six months. On the growth side, the US economy is likely going through a soft patch early in the year. Weather is one factor which likely depressed activity in parts of the country.
Additionally, trade policy uncertainty has negatively impacted consumer and investor sentiment. There is also an effort to constrain government spending in the US, while fiscal efforts are ramping up in other countries. Lastly, competition for artificial intelligence seems to be increasing, turning investors more skeptical about the pace of investment spending from megacap technology companies.
One of the most obvious rotations is happening within the different sectors of the S&P 500. A lot has been said and written about the Magnificent Seven group of companies. That is Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, NVIDIA, and Tesla. These companies comprise about one third of the S&P 500 weight and have contributed more than half of the index gains in the past two years.
But the group has lost some of its luster, with six of the seven companies lagging the S&P so far this year. Profits for the group remain strong but are slowing after two years of explosive growth, while profits for the S&P 493, the rest of the index, are accelerating after a two-year lull.
Reflecting these changes, we've seen the energy and health sectors emerge as new leaders. And more broadly, eight of the 11 sectors are outperforming the S&P, with only the growth sectors-- home services, technology, and consumer discretionary-- down for the year.
Given these sector rotations, performance for investment styles has also flipped. The gap between growth and value is starting to narrow, with value outperforming. Value-style investments trade at lower valuations, are less exposed to trade uncertainty and could benefit later in the year from pro-growth policies that are likely coming.
International stocks have lagged US stocks in eight of the past 10 years, with 2024 marking the largest underperformance since 1998. But the tide appears to be shifting, with international stocks off to a very strong start this year. Germany's economy has stagnated in recent years. However, following the German elections in February, the historically fiscally conservative country appears to be making a major pivot in its policy, proposing a massive stimulus program to boost defense and infrastructure spending.
These proposals, if approved, have the potential to improve the growth outlook for the country and the region. And it's not only Europe that is showing signs of life. Looking further east, low-cost artificial intelligence models in China and the government's changing stance towards the private sector have triggered a rally in technology stocks there, as well.
We are hesitant to pound the table that the year-to-date rally in international stocks is the start of a new trend. However, the brightening outlook and wide valuation gap with US equities argue that now is a good time for investors to review their international allocations. A 70% US, 30% international equity portfolio five years ago would have drifted to a 78%, 22% international today. Rebalancing that portfolio would mean selling some domestic stocks and buying international equities to return to the intended strategic allocation.
Policy uncertainty and trade worries are a known, unknown at this point and may keep volatility elevated in the months ahead. Given the rotations that are underway, we think that portfolio diversification will be critical for investors to navigate this year's twists and turns. Historically, stocks have experienced a correction, defined as a 10% or more decline from highs, about once a year. But any pullback doesn't have to turn into something worse.
The private sector continues to add jobs at a healthy pace. Corporate profits are rising, and the Fed is not considering rate hikes anytime soon. Investors can consider rebalancing strategies and dollar-cost averaging to take advantage of the wide price swings that we are seeing. We recommend connecting with your financial advisor to develop an investment strategy that is tailored to your long-term goals. Thank you for watching, and we'll see you right here next month.