Bloomberg Surveillance's Jonathan Ferro: I'm pleased to say that Mona joins us now for more. Mona – do we need a resolution to the conflict in Iran? Is that what this rally is all about or is it about something else?

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: You know, it's a good point, Jon. I think markets are optimistic and embracing the fact that we're making progress toward a resolution. Both sides seem to be willing to talk to one another. We're making progress toward a resolution around the Strait of Hormuz, but more broadly, I'd say, as we know markets are more forward-looking and we have a glimpse of what they're looking at. We know the WTI oil futures, for example, heading toward $75 backed by December 2026 by year-end, and so markets are pricing in a resolution, at least, some sort of mean reversion. And secondly, we know markets are looking at earnings growth, which is pointing to about 18% year-on-year S&P 500 corporate earnings growth for 2026, so really strong on both fronts. I think that's what markets are looking at – a combination of fundamentals and some mean reversion in oil. 

Bloomberg Surveillance's Lisa Abramowicz: Mona, how much is what seeing in terms of earnings expectations and earnings forecasts right now kind of a one-off – a perfect confluence of events that happened and was set up before the conflict in Iran that could potentially get disrupted later in the year as you start to see some of the inflationary ramifications? 

Mona: Yeah, it's an interesting point because, of course, part of the upward revisions in earnings is coming from the energy sector, which, of course, is benefitting from higher oil prices. The other big part of the earnings story has been tech and tech Capex spending in particular. We've seen upgrades in the tech earnings sector driven by the AI Capex buildout and so, of course, to the extent that that continues will drive earnings but if that does start to moderate or at least the pace of gains start to slow in the year ahead we could see earnings growth start to moderate as well. But we do think overall, the consumer has remained intact, and in fact, what's interesting we think both from a labor market story and an inflation story – labor market, we are seeing signs of resilience. We saw that in the last jobs report. Of course, we'll see how that trend plays out in the months ahead, but to us, the inflation story has been particularly notable. We haven’t yet seen – and we've even gotten March numbers, where WTI and oil prices were elevated – we haven't yet seen a meaningful acceleration beyond forecasts in inflation and, in fact, core inflation seems to be moderating, so to us, that's a good margin story for corporations ahead as well. 

Bloomberg Surveillance's Lisa Abramowicz: Mona, does it make sense that the Russell 2000 is 0.2% away from all-time highs, the Magnificent 7 really isn't close to all-time highs or is much further away from all-time highs? 

Mona: Yeah, you know the small-cap story is certainly interesting. We know when we started the year, there was this theme of broadening of market leadership, and we saw mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperform, we saw cyclical and value sectors start to take some leadership. There was a bit of a pause and cooling in that as the Iran Conflict played out. What we're seeing now, as we're heading toward potentially some easing in that conflict, that story has started to reassert itself, and that broadening story is starting to come back to fruition and we do think small-cap – and we like the mid-cap story – that both of those will benefit as the U.S. economy potentially stabilizes and continues to grow but also small-caps in particular are going through an earnings inflection point, they've in fact had negative earnings last two years and this year are expected to have positive, double-digit earnings – similar to the broader S&P – so that inflection point tends to be the point where small-caps do outperform. And so if that story holds, we think small-caps could have a meaningful upside this year vs you know, broader indexes. 

Jon: Just an incredible run in the U.S. equity market. Mona, thank you for your time.

As we enter Week 5 of the conflict in the Middle East, developments involving Iran continue to shape headlines and drive market sentiment.

Markets will likely remain highly reactive to the incoming news flow – especially around geopolitical escalation risks and energy supply dynamics.

As the conflict stretches on, uncertainty has increased and the range of possible outcomes has widened. However, the base case likely remains one of eventual de‑escalation.

The key shift has been timing. What markets initially expected to resolve more quickly is now unfolding over a longer horizon.

The next pivot date to watch is April 6th. That's not just another date tied to a Trump ultimatum, it is also when the full complement of US ground troops - two Marine expeditionary units and the 82nd airborne – are expected to be positioned in the Middle East.

The other important date to watch is May 13th, the planned start to US-China talks between Trump and Xi.

We see the most likely outcome as a period of temporary stabilization sometime between those dates rather than a fast or definitive resolution.

While military options, including the use of ground troops, remain on the table, domestic political constraints suggest these assets are being used primarily as leverage and deterrence, not as a base‑case path forward.

For markets, that means continued sensitivity to headlines, ongoing risks tied to energy prices and shipping routes, and episodes of elevated volatility—even if the longer‑term trajectory ultimately trends toward de‑escalation.

In this environment, history shows that staying focused on long‑term investment objectives has tended to be more effective than attempting to time short‑term volatility.

Hello everyone, and welcome to the Market Compass. 

Markets remain on edge as the Iran conflict continues, with stocks moving in the opposite direction of oil prices. Recent attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure triggered the first 5% pullback in the S&P 500 this year, highlighting how sensitive investors are to rising geopolitical risk.

At the center of this story is a simple question: how long will the disruption last? Higher oil prices are clearly a headwind, but the economic and market impact will depend less on the initial spike and more on how persistent it proves to be.

Let’s start by zooming out to look at the backdrop.

Higher energy prices act like a tax on consumers. Every additional dollar spent at the pump is a dollar not spent elsewhere. At the same time, higher energy prices would push headline inflation higher and complicate the outlook for central banks.

So yes, the headwinds are real.

But it’s also important to keep perspective. In our view, this is not a 1970s-style energy crisis. There are a few reasons for that.

First, energy is a much smaller share of household spending than it used to be, with it being roughly 2% today versus about 6% back then. Second, the U.S. is far more insulated from a supply perspective than it was in past decades, as it has been a net exporter of oil since 2019. And third, today’s economy is much less energy-intensive overall, with services making up a far larger share of output than they did during the 1970s.

In other words, oil still matters, but it matters less than it used to. That doesn’t mean markets should ignore the shock. It just means that today’s economy is entering this period from a more resilient starting point.

To help frame the uncertainty, we’re thinking about three scenarios.

Our baseline scenario is for a sharp but short-lived spike. In this case, West Texas Intermediate Oil trades in roughly $90 to $100 range before moderating back toward $70 to $80 by year-end. Energy flows remain constrained through at least part of the second quarter but gradually improve after that. Under this outcome, inflation moves somewhat higher in the near term, growth slows potentially below trend, and the Federal Reserve still delivers one rate cut later this year. Treasury yields remain rangebound, and U.S. equities hold up relatively well.

In our downside scenario, oil rises to $120 or higher and stays elevated for several months. Growth slows more meaningfully, the Fed likely stays on hold this year, and the S&P 500 could see a correction of 5% to 15%.

In our best-case scenario, the conflict de-escalates quickly, oil falls back toward $70, inflation pressure proves temporary, and the Fed can cut rates twice in the second half of the year. That would likely support a rally in stocks, especially in more cyclical areas of the market.

Now let’s turn to the Fed.

The Federal Reserve is clearly in a difficult position. It must balance downside risks to the labor market against upside risks to inflation.

This month, the Fed left rates unchanged and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East. Importantly, it did not signal that the next move could be a hike. In our view, that suggests policymakers are still willing to look through a one-time energy-driven increase in inflation, at least for now.

The key variable to watch from here is inflation expectations.

So far, the rise appears concentrated in shorter-term measures, while longer-term expectations remain relatively well anchored. If that continues — and if the conflict proves short-lived — the broader disinflation trend should eventually resume.

So what does all of this mean for investors?

Our view is that while volatility may stay elevated, stronger fundamentals should provide a cushion. Consumers still have more income than they did in prior oil shocks, household debt burdens remain manageable, unemployment is still low by historical standards, and ongoing AI-related investment continues to support growth.

From a portfolio perspective, if oil prices remain elevated, the energy sector, U.S. large caps, and technology may offer relative resilience. If the disruption proves short-lived, leadership could broaden to include small caps, value, and international equities. In fixed income, inflation concerns may keep yields volatile in the near term. But if the 10-year Treasury yield moves closer to 4.5%, we would view that as an opportunity to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds and lock in higher yields.

The bottom line is this: the current oil shock is a real risk for growth, inflation, and markets — but it is not necessarily a recession story. For now, the duration of the conflict remains the key variable, both for the Fed and for investors.

Bouts of volatility may create opportunities to rebalance portfolios, strengthen diversification, and add high-quality investments at more attractive valuations. For tailored advice for your specific situation, connect with your financial advisor.

Thanks for watching, and we look forward to seeing you next month for the Market Compass.

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: It’s looking nothing like a good day for markets. I wish I had better news. I just really don’t. Oil prices briefly hit $119 a barrel. As Iran eyes attacks on oil infrastructure, European gas prices have surged. All this on top of a Federal Reserve that appears to be in a holding pattern on interest rates. That’s not to mention first quarter profit warnings this week from nervous retailers like Macy’s and Lululemon. So, lots going on, indeed, that is for sure.

Now, as Operation Epic Fury disrupts global energy arteries and sends oil towards $120 a barrel, hopefully not, the stock market is grappling with a new era of wartime inflation. For the millions of families watching their 401(k)s fluctuate with every headline from the Middle East, the temptation to retreat is high, but the cost of sitting on the sidelines may be higher.

Joining me at Yahoo Finance HQ is Penny Pennington, Edward Jones CEO. Penny, good to see you as always. Thanks for making time for me here. We were talking a little bit off camera. There’s just so much coming right at the average investor. Like, what is the playbook when, you know, coming into this year, we were expecting rate cuts. Now we don’t know. We were expecting another big year for stocks. Now we don’t know. 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: It’s a time of uncertainty. Did we go to bed last night and hope that things would be very different when we woke up this morning? As we were talking about off camera, our clients are coming in and they’re saying, so, how does what’s going on in the world affect what’s happening in my world? And that’s really the critical question for each investor and their family.

You mentioned the playbooks. Many of those playbooks are similar to what they have always been, which is understand your risk tolerance, your ability to deal with these kinds of ups and downs and curve balls, because these will always happen. Understand your time horizon. How long do you have? Notwithstanding that we hope that this doesn’t go on for a long time, we also know that there’s always gonna be uncertainty to deal with.

So, what is your time horizon? And then what are your goals? What are your hopes and dreams? It’s important then to establish an investment portfolio that matches those things and that is well diversified. And right now, notwithstanding oil prices and prices that are going up, we also have some tremendous values in the market. Ways for clients to take advantage of what’s happening right now.

But as we say, our financial advisors — 20,000 financial advisors — it’s our job to take that anxiety off your shoulders, put it on ours, use those sturdy rules of the road, help you rebalance your portfolio, and stay focused on your world. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: Where are you seeing those areas of opportunity now that the markets — I mean, look, the markets are not that far removed from their highs, but if you dig beneath the surface, there’s a lot of sectors in the market that are in correction territory, and certainly, in some cases, bear market. I mean, look at software stocks. 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: Yeah. The lesson there is not to get wed to any one sector or to assume that any set of stocks is always going to go up. Trees don’t grow to the sky. And so a well diversified portfolio that takes advantage of those counter cyclical movements is very important.

Value stocks right now — the technology stocks had some tremendous days in the sun, and I think will continue to — but the promise of AI and generative AI, and we believe that there’s a lot of promise there, the productivity promise there might begin to transfer from the tech biggies to the companies who are going to utilize those tools to drive greater value and efficiency for their customers and their clients. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: Within the past — I mean, we’re almost three weeks into Operation Epic Fury — have you seen just outsized nervousness amongst your clients, and are they making really transformative changes to their portfolios and how they invest for the next few years? 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: Not generally, and it is because education and insight that stems from understanding a family’s needs and wants and wishes is what drives the plan.

And so one thing that can relieve a lot of anxiety is to have a plan where the day-to-day predictions — and those are fallible predictions — the day-to-day predictions or curve balls have less to do with your long-term plan than sticking with it.

And so, we are not seeing our clients — every conversation is gonna start with, so, what’s going on? What should I be thinking about right now? And that is an absolutely appropriate reaction. But sticking with the plan, a well-diversified portfolio, and understanding the scenario.

So if, for example, oil prices were to stay higher for longer and inflation were to begin to move back up, what does that mean about the tradeoffs that an investor and a consumer needs to be making about what they save, spend, borrow, and invest? 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: We saw one of the hottest, we posted something on TikTok and it really blew up overnight — no pun intended — but Jerome Powell talking about the impact of higher gas prices. And he wouldn’t say this is going to be the impact, but he did point out gas prices are up over a dollar in some areas of the country. Is that, does that tip us into a mild recession? 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: Chair Powell also used the word humility about making predictions. We don’t know. There is no crystal ball about that.

Consumer expectations and how that affects how they spend and what they spend on has a lot to do with the economy in general. The consumer is still spending. They are making tradeoffs now about how to spend and where to spend. And we’re seeing a little bit of that.

But in terms of that tipping us into a recession, we believe that the fundamentals are still very strong. Unemployment is low. Job creation is not great right now. Inflation had begun to ebb. Oil prices are high. So it’s these cross currents — they’re a little bit hard to predict.

So, on one hand, we have to stay on our toes about that. We have to stay vigilant about our everyday needs and the way that we’re spending. But also remain very, very thoughtful about the opportunities that that gives us for our long-term planning. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: AI is really top line for me, Penny, and a lot of executives that I talk with. And it is fundamentally changing how they plan their business, how they do their business day-to-day. How are you using AI inside Edward Jones and why? 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: I like the frame of AI and its value from the standpoint of automation — taking away tasks that a human being doesn’t want to do anyway. Augmentation — how can I be an even better professional decisionmaker? How can I be better at my craft by combining my humanity with AI tools?

And then what’s the addition? What is the value that can be created that we simply couldn’t do before?

We are, we are able to detect senior fraud using AI in our transaction data... 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: It’s AI for good. 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: ...at a speed and insight that we couldn’t before. AI for good. Right on. We are also able to dynamically manage portfolios — tax managed portfolios — family by family, that we simply couldn’t do before. We didn’t have the compute power to do it before. Now, we have the ability to do that. That’s an addition.

And we’re seeing it with drug makers. We’re seeing it in the consumer sector. That has not been fully realized yet. And perhaps that addition to our economy is not just a productivity gain, but an opportunity for new jobs, for new products, for new services — things that ten years ago, five years ago, we could not even have imagined. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: How does it change the role of a financial advisor? 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: AI for good, and combining advisor intelligence with artificial intelligence. We do not believe that artificial intelligence is gonna replace the relationship of a human financial advisor.

In fact, I have a thesis that humans are going to carve out a lane for other humans about the things that matter most to them — health, wealth, their spirituality, and family.

If I were to get a health diagnosis today, and in fact I could have my genome sequenced for a couple thousand bucks, it could tell me if I’m gonna get a dread disease five years from now. I want somebody other than my husband beside me. I’m gonna carve out a lane for an experienced, empathetic, high-quality medical professional.

And we believe strongly — and in fact the research shows — that humans are gonna carve out a lane for the things that are most important to them in our world. Getting good financial advice multi-generationally, especially at moments that matter in my world, during a time when the world seems chaotic. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: I’ve been getting though, that stuff’s good to hear, but on the other side of it, I’ve been talking to folks like and they’re saying, Brian, I don’t need as many people in my job. I just had a convo with Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire. He’s like, I have 1,200 employees. Everyone is trained on AI, but it’s likely that I may not need 1,200 employees. Not over the next two years — he’s thinking about potential changes in six months. I see what Block has done, laid off 40% of their staff. I mean there’s another side to this, though. 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: I think the jobs to be done is what we as leaders need to be asking ourselves. Where is the automation opportunity? And there is automation opportunity — maybe not for all of a job, but for tasks associated with the job.

There’s augmentation opportunity, and then there’s the addition opportunity. So, our opportunity is to be better at being human. The creativity, the judgment, the ethics, the integrity, the discernment, the taste that comes from the application of human skills. That’s what we as leaders have gotta be focused on. 

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: Lastly, leaders coming here this year — I imagine what’s happening with Iran was not on anybody’s bingo card. It wasn’t certainly on mine. Has it changed how you lead the company? How do you adapt to what might be, or might already is, an economic shock? 

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: Well, our company has served millions of clients for 104 years. So, we have served and advised through a hundred percent of those geopolitical shocks, the up and down in the markets, those unforeseen circumstances.

And we’ll continue to do that with calm, with an intention focused on the needs of our clients, family by family. We’ll use that same playbook. We’ll be adaptable. And we’ll give advice that relieves anxiety.

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: Thank you, as always, for the incredible insights, Penny. I appreciate it.

Penny Pennington, Edward Jones: Thank you, Brian.

Brian Sozzi, Yahoo Finance: Thanks for making time for me.

The current conflict in the Middle East is affecting energy markets, stocks, bonds, and currencies. And when uncertainty rises, markets tend to react. While no one knows how long the conflict will last or what its full impact will be, focusing on what we do know can help keep things in perspective. 

To help investors navigate this uncertainty, we suggest focusing on one ‘do’ and two ‘don’ts.’ 

The one ‘do’: 

Do pay attention to history. 
History offers valuable lessons. Markets have endured countless geopolitical shocks, and understanding those past patterns can help set realistic expectations today. 

And now the two ‘don’ts’: 

First, don’t play geopolitics with your portfolio. 
Reacting emotionally to headlines—especially during fastmoving global events—can come at a real cost. A fully invested strategy has tended to fare better than stepping to the sidelines for months while waiting for uncertainty to clear. 

Second, don’t lose sight of the big picture. 
The U.S. economy remains resilient, corporate profits are solid, and diversification continues to offer meaningful stability in volatile environments. 

Here are three key historical and structural factors that support this perspective: 

1. Over the past 15 years, various geopolitical shocks have led to shortlived oil spikes and limited market impact. Oil prices often rise ahead of geopolitical events and peak shortly after. For example, WTI peaked 11 days after Russia's invasion to Ukraine.
2. There have some structural shifts in the U.S. economy over the past couple of decades that have made it more resilient to oil shocks. First, the US has been a net exporter of oil since 2019 and secondly the energy intensity of the economy has fallen by 70% since 1950 because of greater efficiency and the dominance of the services sector.
3. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the global oil market is currently experiencing a significant oversupply which helps create a buffer.

Your financial advisor can help you make sure you have a diversified investment strategy in place to help navigate any uncertainty that may lie ahead.

Over this past weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched a large scale attack on Iran, prompting Iran to respond with counter attacks against multiple cities in the Middle East. Now, first and foremost, we know that this is a human tragedy. And there is uncertainty both on how long this conflict can go and what the total loss may look like.

Nonetheless, as we help our clients navigate this geopolitical crisis will highlight three key points. First, we do believe the biggest impacts may be seen in oil and commodity markets. We have already seen WTI crude oil move higher, about 15% this year prior to the Iran conflict, and we saw about another 5% plus move higher after the conflict began.

Now, perhaps a mitigating factor here is that history tells us that oil spikes due to Middle East conflicts tend not to be long lasting, and we may even see some mean reversion. Number two, markets are reacting in line with expectations. Now while stock market futures are lower, they're not dramatically so. And we are seeing a modest flight to safety in gold and precious metals alongside the move higher in oil and energy.

But again history is on our side. Markets do tend to look past geopolitical crises and in a relatively short period of time. So this in fact may present some opportunities along the way. And number three, perhaps the key in these events that can create headlines swirl is staying calm, staying diversified and staying invested. We know playing politics with portfolios is never a great investment strategy.

And we do continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes, including areas like cyclical and value sectors, and even in E.M. and parts of international equities.

Your financial advisor can help you make sure you have a financial plan and diversified investment strategy in place to navigate any uncertainty that may lie ahead.

Welcome to this edition of Market Compass in which we'll dig into the change in market leadership we are seeing in 2026 so far.

Giant technology companies have been the runaway market leaders over recent years. An investment in the so-called magnificent seven back at the start of 2023 would have more than tripled in value, representing an astonishing run, and far outpacing the returns in other parts of the market.

However, 2026 has been a different story. Tech companies are lagging the pack, with the same magnificent seven group down 6.5 percent year-to-date. Meanwhile, a more diverse set of companies across a wider range of sectors and regions have surged ahead. 

We think this rotation provides an important signal for investors. 

Improving economic and corporate fundamentals are creating attractive opportunities outside of the U.S tech sector—underlining the need for well-diversified portfolios to help take advantage of a broadening in market leadership. 

We'll dig into these fundamentals, but let's start by examining the recent tech wobbles. 

Critically, these don't seem to reflect deteriorating near-term earnings. Instead, after an incredible run, and with valuations elevated, investors are seemingly becoming more cautious for a couple of reasons.

First, we are seeing markets look to discriminate between the winners and the losers from the AI revolution. Software companies are the latest to struggle as investors weigh up the potential of AI to disrupt their business models.

Second, markets are baulking at some of the enormous investments pouring into AI infrastructure with an increased focus on the returns from these outlays. 

Against this backdrop, investors are seeing opportunities in cheaper parts of the market, with seemingly improving fundamentals. All eleven sectors of the S&P 500 are expected to deliver higher earnings this year, with many seeing double-digit gains.

A solid economic backdrop, tax cuts and lower interest rates are helping underpin this improvement.

Business investment is accelerating. While some of this strength reflects the AI data center boom, we are seeing signs of a broader pickup in capex spending, which is likely helped by the more favorable tax treatment of these outlays put in place in last year's tax bill. 

Similarly, we are seeing indications that the freeze in hiring over 2025 is thawing. Private payrolls growth is picking up through the turn of 2026, which is another signal that firms are feeling more upbeat. 

Importantly, a pick-up in hiring should help support ongoing consumer spending — the key engine of the U.S economy — as should the boost from last year's tax package which looks set to deliver $150 billion in tax refunds and lower withholding this year. 

Finally, the economy should feel the benefit from interest rate cuts last year and we continue to see scope from one or two more rate cuts, even if these might have to wait until some of the tariff driven inflation starts to fade in the second half of 2026. 

All-in-all, we think the economy looks in solid shape. And this assessment is seemingly shared by investors who have been moving into more cyclical stocks and smaller companies which tend to be sensitive to domestic growth and interest rates.

This is not just a U.S story. There are signs of improving global growth momentum, particularly in the cyclical manufacturing and trade sectors. Additionally, many economies overseas are set to benefit from looser fiscal policy, like Japan, lower interest rates like Emerging Markets, or even both—as is the case in the Eurozone. Finally, a further depreciation in the dollar has helped bolster returns from international equities for U.S based investors this year. 

Stepping back, we think the broadening in market leadership this year presents an opportunity for clients to diversify portfolios and ease concentration risks. We continue to prefer allocations across U.S large  and mid cap equities, international small and mid-cap stocks and emerging market equities too. 

Speak to your financial adviser to consider if you should look to broaden your investment horizons in 2026.

Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro: We begin this hour with stocks rebounding as investors seek trade clarity from President Trump's State of the Union address. Mona Mahajan of Edward Jones writing, "The overhang of tariff policy remains and markets are reflecting this with some defensive posturing. We recommend staying diversified and staying invested."

Mona joins us now for more. Mona, welcome to the program. How would you frame what's been happening in this market over the past few months? There were some people who came on the program and said, "This is a cyclical rotation. Don't worry about things." Now it feels like a bubble is bursting. 

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: Yeah. Jon, it's interesting. It's a tale of two markets almost. On an index level, you could take a look at the S&P and say, "Well, we're flat-ish year to date. We've been pretty much in line with all-time highs, one to 2% below the most recent all-time highs." But underneath the surface we know that there has been an aggressive rotation and that rotation has really hit parts of the market that are not only being cannibalized by AI, think about the software names, but that are potentially being disrupted by AI. And we've certainly seen that in sectors like parts of financial services, parts of real estate, and parts of even transport and logistics. 

Now keep in mind, none of those business models or revenues have actually shifted. This is still all speculative. Bu t nonetheless, parts of the market that are holding up better, cyclical, but more namely capital intensive and what we call old economy sectors are certainly holding up better. And we think that trade likely has some legs here.

Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro: So Mona, this is important, because the traditional way to think about an equity market whenever we get a move like this, risk on, risk off is a defense versus offense. What's going to do well, value versus growth. This from Goldman I think sums up things pretty well. When they say, "Markets are rewarding capacity networks, infrastructure and engineering complexity, assets that are costly to replicate and less exposed to technological obsolescence." That summarizes the last few months. Do you think looking out, that's going to be the story? 

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: I think until we get some more clarity on how AI plays out, there will be some defensive posturing in the market and that includes kind of gravitating or flight to safety in what we call those more capital intensive parts of the market. Now, we've also seen a bit of flight to safety in precious metals and even that return to treasury bonds as a safe haven asset class. But nonetheless, we do think perhaps the silver lining here is as we look underneath the surface at the fundamentals, the U.S. economy is still growing at over 2% we think in 2025. And by the way, we do think earnings growth, S&P broadly corporate earnings are up about 14% potentially in 2026, as well. And so, we think those two factors alone, stronger economy and better earnings growth underpins the fundamentals. And keep in mind, when you think about prolonged bear

markets, deeper prolonged bear markets, typically they occur when an economy is heading into a recession or the Fed is raising rates aggressively. And those are not two scenarios we see on the horizon.

Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz: When you say fundamentals, I'm not sure exactly what fundamentals to look at. When I look at earnings, they look okay. I hear software names that are going to get tanked by AI, and then you see their earnings and they look pretty good. They're actually growing really well. At what point will those fundamentals start to matter? 

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: Yeah, I think certainly there has been a disconnect between what we're seeing in earnings fundamentals for some of the AI and AI potentially disrupted parts of the market, and how their underlying sales and growth are actually turning up in the quarterly reports. Now, that I think there has been a bit of sell first, ask questions later, but we will see as this AI economy plays out over the next 12, 24 months, whether or not a lot of these fears come to fruition.

And, in our view, what we're seeing in the marketplace is probably a massive front running of what actually may happen in what actually may play out. Not in one to two years, but perhaps three to five years. And so, perhaps there will be opportunities in some of those beaten-up sectors along the way. But for now, our recommendation is stay in areas, we like large cap and mid -cap stocks, but within the sector preferences. We can continue to areas like industrials here, we continue from a regional basis to areas like EM and parts of international, which are offering that earnings upside and maybe some diversification away from U.S. large-cap software names. And we do like areas within investment grade markets, as well.

Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz: Have you gotten more pessimistic just in general about overall U.S. equity returns this year, as we do see this turn and this lack of big tech reclaiming some leadership? 

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: Yeah, I think generally S&P returns are driven by two factors and those are earnings growth and valuation expansion. And the earnings growth we talked about, we think fundamentally remains sound, intact. The valuation part of the story we think has come to the forefront and certainly we've seen higher value parts of the market, really the winners of last year as well if you think about tech and financials, underperforming. But do we see scope for valuation expansion in parts of the market that might have some room for catch up? 

Think about some of the cyclical industrial parts of market. We think in an environment where the Fed maybe still has one to two rate cuts ahead of it, we have seen interest rates gradually move lower, that potential scope for valuation catch up in parts of market that haven't really seen much leadership. 

We do see some hope there. And so, we think both parts earnings growth certainly in a broader market sense, but valuation expansion we think comes just from those maybe catch up potential players.

Bloomberg's Annmarie Horder: Mona, I know you spent some time on the Supreme Court decision and what the tariff policy now means for corporate America. If there are refunds, what do you think corporate America, Lisa's brought up this point a lot, does with that money? 

Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan: Yeah, it's a good question. And look, so far the scope for refunds has been pretty limited. We heard the president talk on Friday about may take years in the courts. There has been no mechanism put in place. We don't see yet how the refund process could p lay out. But if we do see refunds, we do think, one, it does put money back in the hands of corporations who have been spending on areas like CapEx. We know from a tax perspective, CapEx certainly is more attractive in 2026 and going forward. 

And we also think when we think about areas like a lot of companies have had to absorb higher prices from inflated tariffs and perhaps their margins have taken a hit. And so, perhaps they do things like share buybacks or buying back their own stock if the y think it's attractive. And so, there is potential for a bit of both, financial engineering, as well as CapEx spending, we think coming from the corporations. But more broadly we'd say interesting to note that despite the elevated tariffs really since Liberation Day last year, tariffs have not had that outsized impact on inflationary pressures that were at least the worst of many fears and we've continued to see an economy that holds up.

Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro: True. Mona, good to see you. Thank you.

CNBC: Joining us now, Mona Mahajan, head of investment strategy at Edward Jones. Reading some of your comments, Mona, it’s like we're watching it play out, and I think you can give us some good insight. I mean, overall, the earnings that we’ve just seen – I guess we're about halfway through – used to think, I guess the estimate was 7%. It’s been more like 12%, but 30% in tech, which is pretty good. But in recent sessions we have seen traders or investors decide that maybe they should look elsewhere in terms of valuation. At least, that’s what it appears to be.

Mona Mahajan: I think it’s been a tough week for those investors that were exposed to the parts of the market that have really led to the upside. Think about technology, AI. But also more recently we’ve seen gold and precious metals sell off. We’ve seen the Bitcoin crypto space sell off. I’d say, broadly, if we take a step back, we still feel pretty good about the direction of the U.S. economy. We think it’s growing above trend. We feel pretty good – to your point about earnings – we think still double‑digit earnings this year, which underpins stocks. But we do think you have to start thinking about diversification more prudently, more seriously. Parts of the market that have held up well – value, cyclical, market caps in small‑cap and mid‑cap. And then, of course, when you look regionally, EM and international have held up better as well. So, there is an opportunity out there. We think it’s just a diversified opportunity.

CNBC: Valuation is never necessarily a reason to see an imminent sell‑off in anything. But in hindsight, after the sell‑off finally does happen, there were always some little clues. And you don't know what's going to cause it. Earnings might continue to be good, but it could be, well, there's this little wrench in the works here, or margins here, or something that you don't even know in hindsight what’s going to do it. But the bubble does – some air is coming out of all those leaders.

Mona Mahajan: Yeah. You know, I think it’s interesting. I think some of the business models are shifting. So certainly we’re seeing: could AI cannibalize itself in the software space? But also, a lot of the large‑cap tech space was asset‑light. It’s going from asset‑light to asset‑heavy. It was debt‑free; now we’re seeing more debt on the balance sheet.

CNBC: We're talking about that.

Mona Mahajan: So yeah, could margins get compressed a bit? Could valuation get compressed a bit more? I think there are question marks. The good news is growth is still tremendous. But the pace of growth – that second derivative – is slowing a bit.

CNBC: And then you mentioned earnings growth – double‑digit probably again this year. So if you were to assume that interest rates stay where they are or go down, you might not think there'd be a problem with multiples necessarily. So you could just say, all right, 15%, 12% earnings growth – that would translate to 12% in the S&P. But we can't guarantee rates are coming down. In fact, if inflation – if we’re underestimating that – we may not get any more rate relief, and rates could act on the long end, could actually go up like they have.

Mona Mahajan: Yeah. You know, look, I think new Fed chair in place in May – we will see what the direction of travel is.

CNBC: A hawkish Fed chair. More hawkish.

Mona Mahajan: Probably the least dovish out of the four options. But nonetheless, I do think there is a case still for one to two rate cuts this year. To your point, if inflation settles even around 2.5% or so, historically the Fed has tried to bring rates about 100 basis points lower.

CNBC: What if it doesn’t settle?

Mona Mahajan: If it goes to 2.5% to 3%, we still think a 3.5% fed funds rate makes sense here. To your point though, the long end is not controlled by the Fed – the short end is. And we could see a yield curve that starts to steepen. But all that being said, the U.S. economy has held up pretty well even in an environment where rates were probably 3.5% to 4%. So we think anything below that could support the consumer and support consumption of corporations as well.

CNBC: Played out. It… 1980, 1800. Okay, so I understand it goes up. Most years it goes up, but some years it actually closes lower. What could cause a down market this year?

Mona Mahajan: Yeah. You know, I think certainly when we look underneath the surface – to your point: S&P returns are driven by two factors – valuation expansion and what earnings growth does. If earnings growth, we think, is in that 10% range, that's fine. But multiple expansion — we think there are parts of the market that probably have more scope for expansion than others. And so probably value, cyclical could continue to perform well. If we see multiples come under pressure in the tech space, we could see a negative year – by the way, the first out of three years in the tech space. But we think parts of the market continue to hold up well. And we would look internationally a bit. We would look beyond just large‑cap.

CNBC: There’s always trade issues. China, Ukraine. I can worry about a lot of things – bird flu, I don’t know. There’s pandemics, there’s nuclear. There’s so many things – Iran – there’s a lot of things that…

Guest: Or you could slip and fall on the–

CNBC: Sidewalk. Or you could get killed by a vending machine. If you’ve got to get – you know, you put your money in and it's stuck. There’s a lot of things that can happen. You don't think… black swan – you have shark.

Mona Mahajan: Yeah. You know, look, unknown…

CNBC: Unknowns don’t come on land. Although there was a movie where they do, remember?

Guest: That shark tornado.

CNBC: Yeah. Sharknado. So it's possible – unknown.

Mona Mahajan: Unknown for sure. But look, I think the big picture here is: typically what causes a bear market is two things – one, a recession on the horizon; or two, the Fed raising rates rapidly. And neither of those seem in the cards for now. So I do think the backdrop to us still remains relatively benign. And so I think, to your point, a lot of headline noise, a lot of “squirrel” this year – politics, geopolitics – but the fundamentals are where we’re focused.

CNBC: Thank you.

This content is for general information purposes only and is not intended to predict or guarantee the future performance of individual securities, market sectors or the markets generally. Opinions expressed are as of the date of this report and are subject to change. This material is not directed to any specific investor or potential investor and should not be interpreted as a specific recommendation or investment advice. Investors should make investment decisions based on their unique financial situation.

Past performance of the markets is not a guarantee of future results. Investors should understand the risks involved in owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. The value of investments will fluctuate and investors can lose some of all of their money. References to specific companies or securities should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the security, nor should it be assumed to be profitable.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the January Market Compass. Well, it's been about one month into 2026, and there's been no shortage of headlines, rising geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty in the U.S. around the Fed, tariffs and government funding.

Nonetheless, for the most part, financial markets have remained resilient.

We're seeing positive returns for the S&P 500. And notably, there's been a bit of broadening in market leadership. Areas like small-cap and mid-cap stocks, value and cyclical sectors along with EM and international markets have all outperformed.

Now, what's driving this positive market backdrop? We believe markets are focused on the right fundamental drivers, namely positive corporate earnings growth, above trend economic growth and a favorable interest rate and tax backdrop. Let's dive in.

Since the start of the year, investors have been inundated by headline noise.

Geopolitical tensions in areas like Venezuela and Greenland have flared. And at home, we're watching for the nomination of a new Fed Chair, a Supreme Court decision on tariffs and a resolution around government funding. However, for long term investors, we believe it's important to tune out the noise and focus on what really matters for financial markets. We'll walk through three of these key factors here today: corporate earnings, economic growth and a better operating backdrop.

First, we believe U.S. corporate earnings are on pace to achieve double-digit growth this year. In fact, we have seen S&P 500 earnings growth revised higher to about 14.7% for 2026. Now, we know that stock markets are underpinned by earnings growth. And the good news is that this year corporate earnings are coming from a broad set of sectors.

Yes the technology sector is expected to see double digit earnings growth, but so are many other sectors supporting that broadening of market leadership as well.

Second, we see U.S. economic growth remaining above trend levels of one and a half to 2%. Now, as of mid-January, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast called for Q4 economic growth to reach an impressive 5.3% annualized, driven by solid consumption and rising net exports.

Now, more broadly, we expect economic growth to continue to grow at or above trend levels in 2026, given the potential for lower interest rates and benefits from the U.S. tax bill.

Now, we know when the economy's on solid footing and the consumer remains resilient,

financial markets can perform well. Historically, it's when the economy is heading towards a downturn or recession that stock markets tend to fall more sharply. Now, this is not a scenario that we see on the horizon. Finally, we see the potential for a better operating backdrop for companies and households in 2026. Now, in our view, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates 1 or 2 times this year, bringing the Fed funds rate to around three and a quarter to 3.5%.

This would be supportive of better borrowing rates for consumers and corporations. In addition, the U.S. tax bill will kick in as well. And this likely means higher than average tax refunds for households this year. And for corporations, the tax bill offers benefits like an immediate deduction for capex spending. So this combination of lower rates and a better tax backdrop supports U.S. consumption broadly.

Overall, we think it's important for investors, like markets, to focus on the fundamentals and tune out the background noise in the headlines. And what we see for the year ahead is a relatively favorable backdrop: broadening corporate earnings, steady above-trend economic growth, lower interest rates and a supportive tax environment. Now we also know that there could be bumps along the way.

Markets don't rise in a straight line indefinitely, but investors can also use market volatility as an opportunity. Consider diversifying across sectors and asset classes, rebalancing investments and making sure you're aligned with your personal allocation goals. You can always speak to your financial advisor to help you come up with a plan that's best suited for your risk and return preferences.

And remember, a long term, diversified approach in any year, but especially one filled with headline noise, can help you stay on track for meeting your financial goals. With that, I thank you, and we'll see you right back here next month for the Market Compass.

Hello everyone, and welcome to our final Market Compass video for the year! I'm Angelo Kourkafas, and today we’ll look back at 2025, and share some of our key views for the year ahead.

It's been an eventful 2025. Trade policy uncertainty rattled markets early on, but stocks staged a V-shaped rebound to new highs, powered by heavy AI investment and stellar corporate profits.

Looking ahead, we expect another year of positive returns driven by steady economic growth, modest fiscal stimulus, likely more Fed easing, and rising earnings. But as we navigate now year four of this bull market, there are also potential risks, including periodic AI disappointments and lingering inflation. Let's dive into four key views.

Growth was bumpy in 2025 amid trade disruptions, a slowing labor market, and a prolonged government shutdown. Nonetheless, the economy grew about 2%, which is what we expect for 2026. 

We expect tax refunds will support consumer spending early in the spring. Also, favorable tax treatment of investment may encourage businesses to spend, while the AI buildout continues and trade headwinds fade. 

One factor that may act as a speed limit on growth is the labor market, as the low-hiring, low-firing      conditions persist. We expect job gains to improve slightly—around 50,000 to 100,000 per month—but still remain muted compared to recent years. A smaller labor supply, driven by the decline in immigration, should keep unemployment near 4.5%.

On the inflation front, tariffs have pushed goods prices higher, a trend that may persist early in 2026 before fading mid-year. The bigger story is services inflation, which makes up 75% of core CPI and is slowly moderating. Overall, inflation is likely to stay above the Fed's 2% target but improve slightly from 2025.

With the labor market cooling and price pressures still present, we think the Fed will aim for a 3% to      3.5% policy rate as it approaches the end of its easing cycle. If growth holds as we expect and the Fed cuts rates once or twice, the 10-year Treasury yield should stay rangebound near 4.0% to 4.5%. That could widen the yield advantage of bonds over cash, helping bonds outperform again in 2026.     

On the equity side, after three years of double-digit gains in the S&P 500 pushing valuations higher, 2026 will likely be all about earnings doing the heavy lifting. Returns may cool, but with no recession or Fed tightening in sight, we expect the bull market to keep going.

Leadership, however, could shift. In 2025, growth beat value, and tech and communication services dominated for the third straight year. AI should remain a major driver, but we see markets broadening—both within tech and beyond tech —with solid earnings across sectors and regions. We expect the gap between tech and other sectors to narrow in the year ahead, favoring a balanced approach. 

2026 looks promising, but risks like AI disappointments or lingering inflation could test the market's resilience.      

Investors can consider:

No. 1: Maintaining exposure to innovation and AI, but spreading risk. 

No. 2: Broadening your opportunity set to include mid-caps, cyclicals, and international equities.

No. 3: Using bonds for still-attractive income and portfolio stability.

No. 4: Reviewing excess cash allocations as yields decline with Fed rate cuts—weighing whether that cash could work harder elsewhere.

for tailored advice to your specific situation, connect with your financial advisor to help ensure your portfolio is positioned for success in the new year. And for a full look at our 2026 Annual Outlook, visit EdwardJones.com. 

Happy holidays, and we'll see you in 2026!

Hello and welcome to this month's Market Compass. My name is James McCann, I'm the Senior Economist here at Edward Jones, and I'm happy to be joining as one of the hosts of this monthly video series.
The year is almost over, and investors could be forgiven for a sense of whiplash they’ve experienced since the start of 2025 in the current economic climate.      

Earlier this year, we saw tariff negotiations played out in public, sparking renewed fears around inflation. A slowdown in hiring has triggered concerns around the labor market. We’ve heard warnings around a potential AI bubble. And most recently, we’ve contended with a record-breaking government shutdown. 
    
Against this backdrop, it isn't a surprise to see consumer confidence slump to a new low.

However, amid all this negativity, markets have delivered strong returns. The S&P 500 is up more than 30% from its April lows. This has been helped by large gains in technology stocks, while small caps have been getting in on the action, too. But this rally is showing signs of exhaustion. Investors are taking profits, and some are rotating away from the most highly valued parts of the market, like technology companies. That said, the markets are still well up on 2025 so far.

How can we reconcile the seeming contradiction between the gloomy news cycle and this solid market?

Well, I'd suggest three explanations.

First, despite the headlines, the economy remains resilient.

Businesses have so far adapted to higher tariffs. They’re adjusting their supply chains considerably to lessen the impact while absorbing the increase in costs in their margins. Despite this headwind, earnings reports this year have been stronger than expected, indicating that the firms remain highly profitable.
 
Meanwhile, households look well placed to manage a gradual uplift in inflation from tariffs. Rising asset prices, such as home values, 401(k)s and broker accounts, have helped boost the wealth of the household sector. This provides a buffer to help consumers weather shocks like inflation without pulling back materially on spending.

The upshot is that the U.S. economy is a tough nut to crack. Economists’ concerns about a potential recession over recent years have consistently proved too gloomy. This year has been no exception.  

Second, the Fed is taking its foot off the brakes.

Interest rates have fallen from their peak of more than 5% last year to around 4% now. We expect that to continue and should get down to around 3.5% next year.

This adjustment should help the U.S. economy. Lower rates encourage new borrowing and investment, while also lessening the burden of current debt.

Small-cap companies tend to benefit the most from these dynamics, which has been reflected in their strong performance in recent months, even if they have stumbled some.

Finally, markets don't always focus on short-term swings in the economy.

A good deal of attention this year has been centered on AI, the investment cycle powering its development and the expected long-term payoffs of this potentially transformative technology.

This theme has powered a 200% gain in the Mag 7 since ChatGPT was unveiled in late 2022, and it pushed the market cap of NVIDIA to about $5tn, which is larger than even the UK's annual GDP.

Bringing this together, a resilient economy, rate cuts and a burgeoning AI boom have all helped the market shake off the gloom this year.

As we look at 2026, it is certainly possible that we see some bumps ahead. Markets have moved a long way in a short time, stretching valuations and raising the risk of a near-term pullback. Recently, we have seen some signs of these dynamics in technology stocks. However, we think drawdowns could present opportunities to put cash that may be on the sidelines to work – especially with short-term interest rates moving lower.

But the economic narrative for 2026 does look brighter. Households seem set to enjoy larger refunds in April based on legislation passed this year, with businesses also benefitting from tax changes, particularly around their investment expenses. Meanwhile, rates are expected to continue to drift lower, and some of the negative impacts around shifting trade policy should fade. Overall, this appears to be a supportive backdrop for corporate earnings, with few signs of the AI investment boom slowing.

Given these fundamentals, it could be a good time to tolerate a little more risk in portfolios. Investors could consider turning up the dial on equity holdings, preferring a diversified mix of large and mid-cap US stocks, and international mid-cap and emerging markets. Conversely, investors could consider dialing down holdings of typically more defensive investments like bonds, especially following the large reduction in interest rates seen over recent years, which has lessened their attractiveness and lowered their return potential.

Speak to your financial adviser to determine what changes, if any, you might consider as we look ahead to 2026. Most of all, amid the swirl of noise around the economy, this year has taught us to stay calm, keep invested, and carry on focusing on our financial goals.

Thanks again for joining us, and we’ll see you here next month for our December Market Compass.

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the October Market Compass. Now, October is Halloween month, but does that mean it has to be spooky for investors. Historically, October is a more volatile month than average in stock markets. In fact, since 1950, research shows that there are more 1% or higher swings in October than any other month. 

This October, we have started to see signs of that volatility with the S&P 500 experiencing its biggest one-day drawdown since April earlier in October, near 3%. Now, that VIX volatility index, also known as the Wall Street fear gauge, had also inched higher closer to 20 levels after being in the mid-teens for the past several months. However, keep in mind, every year is unique and markets have been rallying steadily since mid-April, with the S&P 500 climbing over 30% without a 5%-plus pullback. 

So we could be due for a period of consolidation or some profit taking after a nice run higher, and the markets certainly have had several challenges or walls of worry to climb in recent weeks, including the extended tariff uncertainty, especially between the US and China, which weighs on consumer prices and inflation, the ongoing US government shutdown, which also weighs on economic growth each week it continues, and of course, some emerging concerns around the credit quality of smaller US regional banks, which seem contained for now but are worth monitoring closely. 

Now, despite the building concerns, we don't see a pullback or correction turning into a deep or prolonged bear market. Now, why is that? Well, there are some positive momentum factors as we head into year end and into 2026. First, the Fed is likely to continue cutting rates, which should support both the consumer and economic growth. 

Second, the US tax bill should kick in next year, which is supportive of companies spending on CapEx and R&D. And finally, corporate earnings growth continues to deliver. In fact, the expectation is that S&P 500 earnings growth will grow about 11% this year and accelerate to about 13.5% in 2026, driven by both tech and non-tech sectors. 

Now, overall, if we do experience a pullback in the weeks ahead, there are ways that investors could likely take advantage. We recommend considering three actions. Number one, rebalancing. As equity markets rallied, parts of portfolios may have grown beyond what was originally intended. For example, a balanced portfolio with 60% equities and 40% bonds may now be much more heavily weighted in equities. So this is a good opportunity to consider rebalancing this portfolio to get aligned with the desired equity and bond risk balance.

Number two, diversifying. Now, given the outsized rally in a few key sectors, including technology and AI, investors may want to consider diversification in their portfolios, especially into those parts of the market that have some more scope for catch up. Now, this could come by trimming gains in winners and reallocating or by putting new money to work as well. 

And number three, adding quality investments. Now, if markets do experience a correction or pullback, investors should consider being prepared. Have a list of potential quality investments that align with your strategic allocations ready in order to use market corrections as opportunities to add to portfolios. While regularly using dollar cost averaging to make investments is an established strategy, there may be times that call for more opportunistic investments. 

So while October has the potential to bring some scary market uncertainty if investors are prepared, volatility can become an opportunity. If you need guidance, talk to your financial advisor about strategies like rebalancing, diversifying, and adding quality investments at better prices. They can be your best resource to help make sure your investments are aligned with your personal long-term financial goals. And with that, I thank you, and we'll see you right back here for the November Market Compass. 

From renewed trade tensions with China to the ongoing government shutdown and worries around an artificial intelligence bubble. Recent headlines have triggered some volatility as we navigate the last quarter of the year. But here is what's important. Corporate earnings continued to grow, and consumer spending remains resilient even as the labor market has softened. The government shutdown will likely slow economic activity temporarily, but growth is likely to rebound once funding resumes.

In markets, Tech continues to lead, driven by heavy investment in artificial intelligence. While valuations are elevated relative to history, they remain below the extremes of the early 2000’s. Tech bubble and earnings continue to deliver. And with the fed likely to continue easing rates, we could see market leadership broaden, creating a favorable backdrop for equities. October is known for volatility, especially with markets near all time highs.

After one of the strongest six month rallies since 1950. Some consolidation of the recent gains is natural, but volatility isn't a reason to panic. It's a normal part of investing in times like these. Staying focused, diversified and grounded in long term fundamentals is more important than ever. Stay informed with our weekly market wrap at edwardjones.com

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Market Compass. We are heading into the final stretch of the year, and both equity and fixed income markets are holding up well, thanks in large part to growing expectations for lower interest rates. 

In September, the Federal Reserve turned a page in its rate-cutting cycle. While the easing technically began last year, it hadn't gained much traction in 2025 until now. What changed? Mounting signs of a cooling labor market have shifted the Fed's focus from inflation to employment, prompting a renewed push towards easing. In this episode, we'll break down what's driving interest rate expectations and what it could mean for your portfolio. 
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Let's start with the labor market. The biggest shift in the Fed's thinking has come from signs of a softening labor demand. The unemployment rate is still relatively low at 4.3%. But job openings have now dipped below the number of unemployed workers for the first time since 2021. That's a signal that employers are becoming a bit more cautious. 

Other data points reinforce this trend. Payroll revisions showed that, over the past year, the economy added about 900,000 fewer jobs than previously thought. And weekly jobless claims have been slowly ticking up. 

Despite these signs of weakness, we don't expect a sharp deterioration. And why is that? First of all, slowing immigration is reducing labor supply, helping keep unemployment low. And also, labor data tends to lag market developments. The recent softening may reflect fallout from peak trade uncertainty earlier this year. As that fades and profit growth remains solid, hiring could rebound. 

While the labor market has taken center stage, inflation hasn't disappeared. In fact, it started to tick higher, but not alarmingly so. August inflation data came in about as expected. Tariff-related price increases have been moderate. And while goods prices are rising, we haven't seen a major spike. 

Services inflation, which makes up about 75% of the core inflation basket, is still trending lower, though progress has slowed. One potential upside of a cooling labor market is slower wage growth. Since wages make up roughly 70% of service sector costs, this could help inflation stay in check. The bottom line-- we don't see a repeat of the 2022 style inflation surge that if related pressures should be temporary and the broader inflation outlook remains manageable. 

So what does all this mean for Fed policy? The combination of labor market softness and manageable inflation suggests the Fed may not want to keep interest rates in restrictive territory for much longer. Most Fed officials view 3% to 3 and 1/2% as a neutral rate, basically where policy neither stimulates nor restricts the economy. We believe the Fed is now easing toward that neutral zone. And markets are already pricing in that shift. 

In past cycles, the market's response to Fed easing, depending on whether the rate cuts were preemptive, what we often call insurance cuts, or reactive, insurance cuts like those in 1995, 1998, and 2019 aim to support the economy before clear signs of trouble. They also tend to be bullish for equities. 

On the other hand, recession-driven or reactive cuts, like those in 2001 and 2007-2008, often coincide with poor risk sentiment and weak market returns. Today's backdrop suggests an insurance cut. While labor demand appears to be cooling, the unemployment rate remains low, and corporate profits and the economy continue to grow at a healthy pace. 

From a portfolio standpoint, which areas might be the potential beneficiaries? We think rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary could be one, also, potentially, mid-cap stocks, which offer exposure to growth without the volatility of small caps, and also emerging markets, which could benefit from a weaker US dollar as other central banks have or already are close to approaching a neutral stance. 

On the fixed income side, the renewed easing bias is already helping. The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped to the low end of our expected range of 4% to 4 and 1/2%. While inflation and debt concerns may limit how far long-term yields fall, intermediate-term bonds still offer attractive yields in our view. 

Lower rates should help sustain the positive momentum in markets. But, of course, let's not forget, markets rarely move in a straight line. Expectations are high, and September and October tend to bring some seasonal volatility. We view any pullbacks as buying opportunities, especially with the potential for growth to reaccelerate in 2026. 

Tax cuts, deregulation, and lower rates could all work together to support the economy. As always, your financial advisor is a great resource to help ensure your portfolio is well diversified and aligned with your long-term goals. Thank you for watching, and we'll see you next month on the Market Compass. 
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