Daily market snapshot

Wednesday, 11/12/2025 p.m.

• Stocks finish mostly higher – U.S. equity markets finished mostly higher on Wednesday, with investors likely eyeing a potential end to the government shutdown. Lawmakers in the House of Representatives are expected to vote later today on a spending bill that, if passed, would extend federal funding through January.* Value-style stocks outperformed on Wednesday, led by strength in the health care and financials sectors, while growth-oriented sectors such as communication services and consumer discretionary were among the laggards.* Overseas, markets in Asia were higher overnight, supported by reports of strong consumer spending in China, while European markets traded higher as well.* Bond yields closed the day lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield declining to 4.07%.*
   
• Markets eye potential end of government shutdown – The Senate passed a spending bill on Monday night that would put an end to the government shutdown and extend federal funding until January 30, 2026.* The bill is now with the House of Representatives where voting could begin as early as today, and while there are no guarantees in Washington, the bill is expected to pass.* At 42 days the current shutdown is the longest on record and has delayed federal spending and key economic releases, leaving investors and policymakers to rely on private measures of activity to gauge economic trends. In our view, the economic impact of the shutdown could surface in the form of a soft patch in fourth-quarter data. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that a six-week shutdown would drive fourth-quarter real GDP growth lower by 1.5 percentage points on an annualized basis compared with if there were no shutdown.** However, these effects are expected to reverse in the first-quarter of 2026, signaling that the shutdown will likely create a displacement but not a destruction of economic growth.** While it will likely take time for government services to normalize, we think an ending of the shutdown should help alleviate the temporary disruptions that have built up in the U.S. economy over the past six weeks. Additionally, the release of federal economic data should help provide additional clarity into U.S. economic activity over recent months.
   
• Weak sentiment, strong markets: A historical perspective – Last Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index showed that consumers are feeling lousy, with the index falling to 50.3, the second-lowest reading on record.* While elevated inflation in recent years and political uncertainty have weighed on consumer moods, measures of activity such as consumer spending and labor-market conditions have proved resilient, supporting economic growth.* Additionally, low sentiment has historically coincided with strong equity returns. Looking back at six prior periods of depressed sentiment (1980, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2022 and 2023), the S&P 500 gained an average of 15% over the next six months and 25% over the next 12 months.*** While history may not repeat, we think this pattern underscores that markets are forward-looking and can perform well despite negative headlines. 
   

Brock Weimer, CFA;

Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet 
**Congressional Budget Office "A Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of the Government Shutdown on the Economy Under Three Scenarios, as of October 29, 2025"
***FactSet, Edward Jones, S&P 500 Price Index.}

Tuesday, 11/11/2025 p.m.

• Markets reverse early pullback to close higher – Equity markets finished higher on Tuesday, as gains in the health care, energy and consumer staples sectors offset weakness in technology stocks*. Bond markets were closed in observance of Veterans Day. In international markets, Asia ended mixed overnight after retreating from earlier gains*. European markets advanced as the U.S. and Switzerland work toward a trade deal that could reduce 39% tariffs on Swiss exports*. The U.S. dollar declined against major global currencies*. In commodity markets, WTI oil traded higher after Russian oil company Lukoil halted production at an oil field in Iraq in the latest sign that U.S. sanctions on Russian oil are tightening global supply*.
• Solid earnings season in final stretch – With 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly earnings, results have been strong relative to expectations, as 81% of companies have beaten analyst estimates by an average upside surprise of 7.2%*. As a result, third-quarter earnings growth forecasts have been revised higher to 12.6%, up from 7.3% at the end of the quarter*. Technology companies lead earnings growth, followed by financials and utilities*. Earnings growth has also been broad-based, with nine of the 11 sectors on track to report higher earnings year-over-year*. We believe wider earnings growth should help support more balanced market performance, reinforcing the case for portfolio diversification. With valuations elevated, rising earnings will likely be key to driving markets higher, in our view.
• Spending bill to end government shutdown clears Senate – The spending bill to fund the federal government passed the Senate on Monday night in 60-40 vote – the minimum required to block a Democrat-led filibuster. The bill now advances to the House of Representatives, where voting could begin as early as Wednesday. President Trump has indicated he intends to sign the funding deal*. While timing uncertainty remains, if all goes as expected, the shutdown should end this week*. We believe ending the government shutdown should help ease disruptions to the U.S. economy that have built up in recent weeks. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have missed multiple paychecks, key services have been suspended, and uncertainty has grown around benefits like the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which supports more than 40 million Americans*. Following a record-breaking shutdown, it will take time for government services to normalize, in our view, as backlogs are cleared. However, we expect much of the shutdown-driven drag on growth to reverse through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. The resumption of work by federal statistics agencies should help give greater visibility into the health of the U.S. economy as well. 

Brian Therien, CFA
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}

• Stocks rally to start the week – Equity markets moved higher on Monday as the Senate advanced a plan to end the longest government shutdown on record*. The S&P 500 jumped more than 1.5% over the session, representing something of a rebound from last week's struggles, with big technology stocks leading the way, helping the Nasdaq index rise 2.5%*. This follows a positive tone in international markets, with European and Asian equities higher overnight*. Against the backdrop of improving risk sentiment, bonds sold off, pushing the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 2 basis points (0.02%) higher to 4.11%*. At the same time, the dollar was weaker against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, while commodities prices, including gold and oil, moved higher*.  
   
• Congressional breakthrough – The deadlock in Congress that has left sections of the federal government shut since the start of October looks to be breaking*. A group of moderate Senate democrats have split with party leadership and voted to support a deal to end the record-breaking shutdown*. There are still steps to navigate, with the Senate still to schedule a vote for final passage, and the House of Representatives also to approve the measure before it heads to the president's desk*. However, barring any late surprises, the deal would fund some government agencies for the full fiscal year (through October 2026) and others through January 30, 2026*. The bill would also provide backpay for federal workers who have been furloughed and restore federal payments to states and localities*. Exact timelines are vague, but if all goes according to plan, the shutdown should end this week*.
   
• Fog to lift – An end to the government shutdown should help alleviate some of the disruptions to the U.S. economy that have been building over recent weeks, in our view. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers have missed multiple paychecks, important government services have been suspended, and there has been uncertainty over the payment of benefits like SNAP, used by more than 40 million Americans*. Following a record-breaking shutdown, it will take time for government services to get back to normal, in our view, as backlogs are cleared. However, we should anticipate that much of the shutdown-driven hits to growth seen over recent weeks will likely reverse through the end of 2025 and into early 2026. The resumption of work by federal statistics agencies will help illuminate this swing. Funding for the BLS, BEA and Census Bureau will help give greater visibility on the health of the U.S. economy, in our view. However, it is important to keep in mind that data quality over the months affected by the shutdown will likely be lower, as we think statisticians will be forced to partially impute these figures based on alternative data or typical seasonal patterns.    
   

James McCann;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg}

• Stocks finish mostly higher despite tech weakness – Equity markets finished mostly higher on Friday, with the Nasdaq posting a modest decline—weighed down by growth-oriented sectors such as technology and communication services—while the Dow and S&P 500 edged higher.* Outside of technology, stocks fared better, with sectors such as materials, energy, and consumer staples gaining over 1% on the day.* For the week, the S&P 500 declined by 1.6%, led lower by the technology sector, though it remains up over 14% year-to-date.* In our view, this week's weakness can be attributed to concerns over elevated valuations within the technology sector, as well as the ongoing government shutdown, which has prevented federal economic data from being published.* Overseas, markets were lower overnight in Asia, with Japan's Nikkei index closing down 4% for the week, while European markets traded lower as well.* Bond yields were little changed on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield finishing around 4.1%.*
   
• Private data points to steady economic activity – With the government shutdown now in its sixth week and officially the longest on record, investors are increasingly turning to private data sources to assess economic trends in the absence of federal reporting. This week brought several updates on economic activity: the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly below expectations at 48.7 on Monday.* However, demand-related components—including new orders, backlogs, and new export orders—all showed improvement in October.* The ISM Services PMI, released on Wednesday, exceeded expectations, rising to 52.4, the highest level since February.* Demand measures such as new orders and new export orders improved, accompanied by gains in the employment sub-index.* On the jobs front, data released this week was mixed. The ADP Employment Report for October showed a gain of 42,000 private payrolls, beating economist expectations and marking the first month of job growth since July.* Challenger job-cut announcements painted a less rosy picture, with cuts rising to 153,000 in October—led by reductions in the technology and warehousing sectors—as companies cited cost-cutting and automation through AI as primary drivers of the uptick.** Additionally, today's University of Michigan consumer sentiment report indicated that confidence in current economic conditions is weakening.* While the economy may experience a soft patch as the effects of the government shutdown deepen the longer it persists, we view this week’s ISM data and the ADP employment report as signs of underlying stability. We expect economic activity to strengthen through 2026, likely supported by easing monetary policy and diminishing headwinds from trade-policy disruptions.
   
• Performance check-in – As we enter the homestretch of 2025, equity markets appear to be on pace for another strong year of performance. The S&P 500 is higher by 15.5%, including dividends, through yesterday's close, adding to 25%-plus gains in 2023 and 2024.* Despite recent struggles, familiar faces have led the market rally in 2025, with information technology and communication services the top-performing sectors—each higher by roughly 25%—driven by ongoing demand for AI and strong profit growth.* Outside of the growth-oriented sectors of the S&P 500, the industrials and utilities sectors have also performed well in 2025, each up over 17%, including dividends.* In our view, diversification will be critical for investors, and we recommend maintaining balance across both growth- and value-oriented sectors as part of a well-diversified portfolio. As part of our opportunistic equity-sector guidance, we recommend investors consider overweighting the industrials, health care, and consumer discretionary sectors, offset by underweights to the consumer staples and utilities sectors, while maintaining neutral allocations to all other sectors. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **Challenger, Gray and Christmas} 

• Markets close lower as technology stocks pull back – Equity markets finished lower on Thursday, led by declines in consumer discretionary and technology stocks*. In international markets, Asia finished higher overnight, backed by strong performance among AI-related stocks*. European markets fell after eurozone retail sales unexpectedly dipped 0.1% in September from the prior month, missing estimates for a 0.25% rise*. Bank of England also held its policy rate steady at 4.0%, as expected*. The U.S. dollar weakened against major international currencies*. In commodity markets, WTI oil extended its recent slide, likely due to demand concerns*.
   
• Solid earnings season approaching final stretch – With 86% of S&P 500 companies reporting quarterly earnings, results have been strong relative to expectations, as 82% of companies have beaten analyst estimates by an average upside surprise of 7.3%*. Technology companies are leading earnings growth, followed by the financial and utility sectors*. Earnings growth has also been broad, with eight of the 11 sectors reporting higher earnings year-over-year*. Wider earnings growth should help drive more balanced market performance, strengthening the case for portfolio diversification, in our view. With valuations elevated, rising earnings will likely be key to driving markets higher, in our view.
   
• Bond yields edge lower – Bond yields were down, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.09%*. Bond markets reflect expectations for the Fed to continue its easing cycle* to help bolster the softening labor market. Futures markets are pricing in one more interest-rate cut this year, followed by another two cuts next year, which would bring the fed funds rate near 3.0%**. The Fed's own projection suggests a slightly slower pace of easing***. In our view, given the potential for economic momentum to slow, driven in part by the ongoing government shutdown, the Fed likely remains on track for two or three more rate cuts through next year. We expect lower interest rates to reduce borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, which should help provide stimulus to the economy.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **CME FedWatch ***U.S. Federal Reserve}