• Stocks finish lower amid elevated interest rates – U.S. equity markets closed lower on Tuesday, as elevated bond yields and weakness in technology stocks weighed on sentiment. After moving higher early in the day, longer-term bond yields finished little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at around 4.7% and the 30-year yield finishing around 5.28%. Despite the pullback in yields over the course of the day, the 10-year Treasury yield remains near its year-to-date high, while the 30-year yield remains near its highest level since 2007. From a market-leadership perspective, technology was a notable laggard, with weakness in semiconductor stocks weighing on the sector and contributing to a 1.3% decline in the Nasdaq. Meanwhile, the energy sector outperformed, supported by a modest rise in oil prices and ongoing uncertainty about developments in the Middle East. Defensive sectors, including health care and consumer staples, also outperformed, reflecting a defensive posture across markets on Tuesday.
   
• Government bond yields edge higher, weighing on sentiment – Despite a modest decline today, government bond yields have moved modestly higher this week, particularly at longer maturities, with the 10-year Treasury yield trading around 4.7% and the 30-year yield near its highest level since 2007, at 5.28%. There has been limited incremental economic news to explain the move higher in yields, particularly because the move higher has followed encouraging July inflation data and a repricing of Fed expectations toward keeping rates on hold in September. Rather, markets seem to be responding to several factors that are placing upward pressure on yields. First, the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) reported that, through July, U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance was nearly 30% higher than during the same period last year. In our view, elevated investment-grade bond supply could be contributing to the move higher in yields. Another factor likely contributing to higher yields is ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, which has pushed WTI crude oil prices back above $80 per barrel. Additionally, we think fiscal concerns may be placing upward pressure on longer-maturity yields after the U.S. recorded its largest monthly budget deficit since March 2021 in July. In the near term, we expect these factors, along with a generally healthy economic backdrop, to keep longer-term yields elevated. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to remain within a range of 4.5% to 5.0% over the remainder of the year. Against this backdrop, we recommend that investors maintain neutral duration exposure relative to the benchmark, as we expect the conditions noted above to keep longer-term yields elevated in the near term.
   
• Retail earnings in focus – Retail earnings are in focus Tuesday, with investors digesting results from home-improvement retailer Home Depot, which reported better-than-expected earnings and sales for the quarter. Management noted broad-based demand across the business, with a 2.8% increase in average ticket size and customers’ continued willingness to take on smaller projects helping drive the better-than-expected results. Additionally, management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, highlighting, in our view, cautious optimism about consumer spending trends. Consumer spending trends should remain in focus, with Lowe’s, TJX, Ross Stores, and Walmart scheduled to report later this week. Despite a soft July retail-sales report last Friday, we expect household spending to remain steady over the remainder of the year. While the benefits of tax refunds earlier this year are likely behind us and elevated oil prices could continue to weigh on discretionary spending, stable labor-market conditions and healthy household balance sheets should continue to support spending through year-end, in our view.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

• Stocks edge lower to begin the week, with higher yields likely weighing on sentiment – U.S. equity markets closed lower on Monday, as a rise in longer-term Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment, in our view. It was a quiet day for economic data, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index the primary release. The index edged up to 35 in August from 34 in July, signaling a modest improvement in homebuilder sentiment. However, it remains well below its long-term average of roughly 51, as elevated borrowing costs and affordability challenges continue to weigh on housing-market activity. Overseas, European markets were little changed, while Asian markets were mostly higher despite weaker-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth in Japan. Longer-term Treasury yields moved higher on Monday. The 10-year yield rose above 4.7%, while the 30-year yield climbed above 5.3%, reaching its highest level since 2007. In commodity markets, oil prices also finished higher, with West Texas Intermediate crude trading around $84 per barrel as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East.
   
• Bond yields remain near year-to-date highs despite tame July inflation – Last week brought encouraging news on the inflation front, with both the headline and core consumer price index (CPI) moderating and wholesale prices trending lower. In response, futures markets shifted from pricing in a rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting to favoring a hold. Bond yields, however, have traded higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.7% today and the 30-year yield rising to 5.31%, the highest since 2007. In our view, several factors are likely contributing to the upward pressure in longer-term yields. First, issuance of investment-grade corporate bonds has increased meaningfully this year. Bloomberg has noted that issuance is more than 30% higher on a year-over-year basis, suggesting that greater supply may also be contributing to the elevated yield environment. Second, oil prices continued to move higher amid uncertainty surrounding the path forward in the Middle East, adding to inflation concerns and potentially placing further upward pressure on bond yields. Finally, ongoing fiscal concerns have likely placed upward pressure on yields, particularly at longer maturities. The U.S. reported a $432 billion budget deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March 2021. Against this backdrop, we expect the 10-year Treasury yield to trade within a range of 4.5% to 5.0% over the remainder of the year. We recommend that investors maintain neutral duration exposure relative to their benchmark. Looking beyond the near term, starting yields have historically had a strong relationship with future returns for investment-grade bonds over a multi-year time horizon. Geopolitical uncertainty, elevated issuance, and fiscal concerns may continue to create near-term challenges, but today’s higher yields could bode well for fixed income returns over the longer run, in our view.
   
• Retail earnings in focus – Following a downbeat July retail-sales report on Friday, investors will likely turn their attention to second-quarter earnings from several large retailers this week. Home Depot will kick things off on Tuesday, followed by Lowe’s, Target, and TJX on Wednesday. Ross Stores and Walmart will report on Thursday. At the index level, it has been another strong earnings season. With roughly 91% of S&P 500 companies having reported, about 85% have posted a positive earnings surprise, while index earnings are on pace to grow by 48% year-over-year in the second quarter. Earnings growth is expected to remain robust in the quarters ahead, with both the third and fourth quarters projected to deliver growth of more than 20%. Encouragingly, eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors are expected to generate double-digit earnings growth in 2026. In our view, strong earnings growth across multiple sectors should remain supportive of U.S. equity markets through year-end. As part of our equity sector guidance, we favor communication services, which we believe could benefit from strong AI-related compute demand, as well as industrials, which could benefit from a resurgence in manufacturing activity and infrastructure spending.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

• Stocks close slightly lower, with household spending in focus – U.S. equity markets closed slightly lower on Friday following softer-than-expected economic data. Headline retail sales fell 0.6% in July, compared with expectations for a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 51.0 in August from 55.2 in July, remaining well below its longer-term average of around 84. Despite Friday’s decline, the S&P 500 finished modestly higher for the week, notching its third consecutive weekly gain. Treasury yields also moved higher, particularly at the long end of the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to just below 4.7%, while the 30-year yield rose to approximately 5.26%. The rise in longer-term yields despite softer economic data may reflect several factors, including ongoing uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East and a modest increase in consumers’ year-ahead inflation expectations. The University of Michigan survey showed that year-ahead inflation expectations edged up to 4.3% in August from 4.2% in July, while five- to 10-year expectations held steady at 3.3%.
   
• Consumer spending softens in July – Headline retail sales fell 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% gain and posting their first monthly decline since January. Despite the monthly pullback, sales remained 5.0% higher compared to this time last year. Looking beneath the headline, declines at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations weighed on July sales. However, weakness extended beyond these categories, as retail sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline also declined 0.2% for the month. A 2.2% decline in sales at nonstore retailers, a category that includes online shopping, contributed to the broader weakness. However, the drop may partly reflect a timing distortion, as Amazon moved Prime Day from its traditional July window to June 23–26 this year, potentially pulling some purchases forward into June. In our view, elevated tax refunds stemming from legislation enacted in 2025 likely supported consumers during the first half of the year. Combined with relatively stable labor-market conditions and a low pace of layoffs, this support likely helped offset the pressure that higher energy prices placed on household finances. With the boost from tax refunds likely behind us, a more moderate pace of spending appears reasonable to us over the second half of the year. Nevertheless, we expect consumer spending to remain stable through year-end, supported by healthy household balance sheets and low unemployment.
   
• Contained inflation supports a Fed pause in September – Markets breathed a sigh of relief this week as July’s consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation reports came in largely in line with, or below, expectations. On the consumer side, headline CPI rose a modest 0.1% for the month and eased to 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Core CPI increased 0.2% in July and 2.5% from a year earlier. Over the three months through July, core CPI rose at a 1.6% annualized rate, marking the first three-month reading below the Fed’s 2% inflation target this year. The producer price report provided further evidence of moderating price pressures. Headline PPI was unchanged in July, while PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2%, below expectations. Before last week's payroll report, markets had priced in roughly a 60% probability of a 0.25-percentage-point rate increase at the Fed’s September meeting. Following this week’s inflation data, futures markets are now tilted toward a pause, with the probability of a rate increase falling to approximately 30%. Barring an upside surprise in the August inflation data or renewed energy-price pressures, we believe the recent string of moderate inflation readings support the Fed holding rates steady in September.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

• Stocks continue to set record highs – U.S. equity markets moved higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high. This comes as both consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) inflation data for July came in somewhat cooler than expected. As a result, expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September have moved lower. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of the Fed raising rates at the September 16 FOMC meeting has fallen to about 34%, from around 55% last week. Bond yields are also moving lower, supportive of equity markets as well. The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to be most sensitive to Fed rate expectations, moved lower by about 0.05%, from 4.2% to 4.15%. Overall, for the full year, the S&P 500 is now up about 14%, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq is up by 15%. In our view, a combination of strong earnings growth and stable labor-market and consumption trends continues to underpin stock market gains.
   
• Producer price index (PPI) inflation eases in July, in line with expectations – Headline PPI inflation rose 4.7% year-over-year in July, below expectations of 4.9% and well below last month's 5.5% reading. Core PPI inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 4.2%, slightly above forecasts of 4.1%, but still below last month's 4.7%. Overall, easing inflation on producer prices indicates that production and materials costs are more contained and could mean better final prices for consumers. Markets have welcomed this week the combination of better-than-expected CPI inflation and PPI inflation for the month of July. Nonetheless, inflation remains elevated versus the Fed's 2.0% core inflation target. While inflation does not seem to be reaccelerating, which is a step in the right direction, investors will be monitoring one more set of inflation data in September, which we believe will be critical ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
   
• Investing at all-time highs can be fruitful – Reaching an all-time high can leave investors wondering whether it is still a good time to put money to work. While pullbacks can occur at any time, history suggests that new highs have not typically been poor entry points.* Average forward three-month returns have been slightly lower when investing at an all-time high, but the gap largely disappears over six months.* Over one-, three-, and five-year horizons, average returns have actually been higher following all-time highs than when investing on a typical trading day.* In our view, the lesson is that new highs often occur because fundamentals are improving, not because a market advance is ending. As a result, time in the market has historically mattered more than waiting for a perfect entry point. Read more in this week's Weekly Market Wrap: https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update

Mona Mahajan;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.
Source for data cited: *FactSet, Edward Jones}

• Stocks rise with inflation in focus – U.S. equity markets traded higher on Wednesday following the release of July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Headline CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 2.5%, with both measures matching consensus expectations. From a leadership perspective, the technology-heavy Nasdaq outperformed, gaining 0.5%, while U.S. small-cap stocks also posted strong returns, with the Russell 2000 Index advancing around 0.7%. Bond yields closed little changed following the in-line inflation reading, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending the session at approximately 4.69%. In commodity markets, oil prices were little changed as investors continued to await greater clarity on the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz.
   
• Inflation eases in July, matching expectations – Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, matching consensus expectations. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year-over-year, also in line with expectations. Encouragingly, the July reading brought the three-month annualized rate of core CPI down to 1.6%, the first reading below the Fed's 2% inflation target since December 2025. Looking at the underlying drivers, shelter inflation, which accounts for more than one-third of the CPI basket, rose a modest 0.1% for the second consecutive month. Additionally, sluggish home price growth in recent months suggests the potential for further moderation in shelter inflation over the coming months. On the other hand, core goods prices posted their largest monthly increase since September of last year, as upward pressure on used vehicle and consumer electronics prices filtered through, with the latter perhaps reflecting recent price increases announced by Apple. Overall, we believe today's report suggests that higher oil prices have not created broad-based inflationary pressures across core categories. Combined with a contraction in payrolls in July, the data could help support a patient approach from the Federal Reserve with respect to future monetary-policy actions. That said, the August inflation report will likely play a key role in shaping expectations ahead of the September policy meeting.
   
• Consumer check-in ahead – In addition to another key inflation reading, this week will also provide a look into recent consumer-spending trends, with July retail sales scheduled for release on Friday. Expectations are for the headline figure to rise 0.1% month-over-month, while control-group retail sales, which exclude categories such as motor vehicle and parts dealers, gasoline stations, building materials, and restaurants and bars, are expected to increase 0.4%. More recently, evidence has pointed to solid consumer-spending trends. Control-group retail sales grew at a three-month annualized rate of 8.0% through June, while real personal consumption expenditures increased at a 3.2% annualized rate in the second quarter. That marked the strongest pace of growth in a year and highlighted the resilience of household spending despite higher oil prices. We expect consumer-spending trends to remain healthy in the coming months, supported by steady labor-market conditions despite slowing job growth, and generally healthy household balance sheets.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}