Daily market snapshot

Tuesday, 1/13/2026 p.m.

• Stocks slide – U.S. equities moved lower today, with softer-than-expected inflation data failing to lift market sentiment*. Large-cap stocks were the worst performers, with the S&P 500 index down 0.2%, led by a near 2% decline in the financial sector after disappointing JP Morgan results*. Short-term U.S. government bond markets rallied following cooler price data, with the 2-year Treasury note yield a touch lower at 3.52%, and the 10-year yield at 4.17%*. The dollar moved initially lower against a basket of international currencies after the inflation report but subsequently rebounded to finish the session up*. Gold prices edged off their record highs, while oil prices climbed to a two-month high on the back of increasing tensions between the U.S and Iran*.

• Signs of encouragement in December CPI data – Economists have struggled to get a read on inflation over recent months, with the October and November CPI data heavily distorted by the government shutdown*. December, therefore, represents the first "clean" inflation report for some time, and the signals were generally positive, in our view. Headline inflation was firm over the month, in part reflecting another large rise in food prices*. However, core inflation data, which strip out the volatile food and energy prices, were softer than feared at 0.2% month-over-month, helping bring the year-over-year rate down to 2.6%*. This downside surprise was driven by core goods inflation, which was flat in December and is now up by just 0.2% over the past three months in annualized terms*. While part of this slowdown reflects bumpy used car prices*, the Fed will likely be watching these data carefully in coming months to see if the inflationary impulse from higher tariffs is starting to ease. Services inflation was firmer in December, with shelter prices in particular bouncing back after data collection issues in October and November*. However, this component of inflation clearly slowed in 2025*, and we expect a further gradual moderation this year. Overall, the report provides tentative encouragement that we are seeing a gradual easing in underlying U.S. inflation pressures, in our view.

• A careful balancing act for the Fed – Today's inflation data will not change the Fed's thinking ahead of its upcoming January meeting, in our view. The central bank has provided a strong hint that it is set to take a pause from its recent run of interest-rate cuts **, and the market is currently pricing nearly no chance of a move*. However, signs of gradually cooling price pressures help support the case for further careful policy easing through 2026, especially with the most recent labor report showing still subdued hiring rates*. Markets are pricing around a one in five chance of a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut in March and April, with the odds of a cut in June, after current Fed Chair Powell's term ends, seen higher at 45%*. The Fed's next move is complicated by news this week that Chair Powell is under investigation by the DoJ, with Powell arguing that this represents part of a political campaign to pressure the central bank to lower interest rates*. Senior Republicans and Democrats have pushed back on this investigation and warned that they will not confirm the president's nominee for the Fed board while the issue is outstanding*. This pushback has seemingly helped ease some of the market concerns around threats to the central-bank independence that surfaced at the start of the week*.

James McCann;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg **Federal Reserve} 

Monday, 1/12/2026 p.m.

• Stocks close higher, shaking off central-bank independence concerns – U.S stocks closed higher, reversing losses at the open, following reports that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation related to testimony he gave last summer concerning the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation project.* Chair Powell released a video yesterday stating that the Fed has made every effort to keep Congress fully informed about the renovation and that he views the investigation as an attempt by the administration to influence monetary policy.
  
  Under the Federal Reserve Act, the president may remove members of the Board of Governors only “for cause,” a term that is not explicitly defined in statute but has historically been interpreted by courts to mean neglect of duty or malfeasance (i.e., wrongdoing or misconduct by a public official).** While an investigation has been opened, Chair Powell has not been formally charged. Moreover, any effort to remove him would likely face significant legal challenges, a process that would take time. In our view, a conviction may be required to establish “cause,” as it would demonstrate that the facts of the case were adjudicated by a court and that Powell was afforded due process under the U.S. Constitution.
  
  From a market perspective, U.S. stocks brushed off these concerns, with the S&P 500 logging a modest gain, supported by strength in the industrials and consumer staples sectors.* The financials sector was a laggard, with President Trump's calls for a 10% interest-rate cap on credit cards weighing on the sector.* In contrast, the U.S. dollar fell while U.S. Treasury yields rose.* Other traditional safe-haven assets such as gold finished higher, with geopolitical uncertainty in Iran likely contributing to the rise as well.* The central concern for markets from these developments is that this episode signals a potential erosion of the Federal Reserve’s ability to conduct monetary policy independent of political influence. With Chair Powell’s term set to expire in May, and a more dovish successor potentially taking his place, we expect this issue to remain a market-relevant headline in the coming months. That said, the Federal Reserve’s institutional design—including a 12-member voting committee for monetary-policy decisions and 14-year staggered terms for Board members—is explicitly intended to insulate monetary policy from political pressure. We expect these structural safeguards to limit the extent of any erosion in the Fed’s independence.
   
• Central-bank independence in focus to start the week – News of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reignited concerns over central-bank independence. While U.S. equities posted a modest gain, the dollar was weaker, and Treasury yields traded higher.* The primary market concern is that this development could signal a weakening of the Federal Reserve’s ability to conduct monetary policy independent of political influence. Chair Powell’s term as Fed chair is set to expire in May, and he could be replaced by a more dovish successor who may be more inclined to lower interest rates. However, the Fed chair does not unilaterally set monetary policy. Decisions are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which consists of 12 voting members, with each vote carrying equal weight. Importantly, several FOMC participants have recently emphasized the importance of central-bank independence*. As a result, we do not expect a change in Fed leadership to materially erode the Federal Reserve’s ability to set monetary policy independently. From a portfolio perspective, we continue to believe that opportunities are attractive in global equity markets, and we recommend that investors take a globally diversified approach to overweighting stocks versus bonds. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.
   
• Inflation on the horizon – Inflation data will be in focus tomorrow with the release of the December consumer price index (CPI). Consensus expectations call for headline CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% on the month and 2.7% on a year‑over‑year basis.* Following a lower‑than‑expected November reading—which was clouded due to limitations in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) ability to collect data during the government shutdown—investors will likely be watching closely to see whether the recent disinflationary momentum can be sustained now that the BLS has resumed normal operations. In recent months, goods prices have risen from relatively low levels, likely reflecting tariff‑related cost pass‑* By contrast, services inflation has shown encouraging signs of gradual moderation.* We expect cooling labor‑market conditions to contribute to further easing in services inflation over the course of 2026. Taken together, we believe inflation is likely to hover in a 2.5%–3.0% range in 2026.

Brock Weimer, CFA;

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **U.S. Federal Reserve}

Friday, 1/9/2026 p.m.

• A strong start to 2026 – Equity markets delivered strong gains on Friday, capping off a robust first full week of the new year*. The S&P 500 closed 0.7% higher, leaving the index up 1.8% over 2026 so far, while the small-cap Russell 2000 is now up a full 5.8% year-to-date*. Shorter-dated government bonds sold off at the end of the week as December's payrolls report showed few signs of labor-market distress, pushing investors to hedge bets on Fed easing at upcoming meetings*. However, longer-duration bonds rallied, helped by President Trump's directive to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds*. The dollar continued its good run in 2026 so far, with the greenback now up 0.8% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies year-to-date*. WTI oil prices jumped 2% as investors contemplate the latest geopolitical headlines out of Iran, and gold prices nudged above $4,500 per ounce*.
• Mixed signals from the December labor report – Headline nonfarm payrolls increased by a disappointing 50,000 in December, while gains over the previous two months were revised lower by a cumulative 76,000*. Sluggish hiring continues a trend seen throughout 2025, with payrolls rising just 584,000 over the year, down from the 2 million increase reported in 2024**. Cuts to federal government employees of 277,000 in 2025 explain some, but not all, of this slowdown**. Despite sluggish hiring, the unemployment rate declined in December to 4.4%, providing a more reassuring signal**. Signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate over recent months indicate that we are not seeing a significant deterioration in the labor market, in our view, even if hiring remains stuck in the slow lane.
• Time for a pause? – The Fed has cut interest rates at its each of its past three meetings but indicated that it might be ready to take a pause from this policy easing in January***. Today's labor data seem unlikely to change that assessment, in our view. Moreover, adding to the case for a pause is the unexpectedly strong third-quarter GDP report released late last year, and building expectations for fourth-quarter GDP based on tracking estimates****. However, while the Fed looks set to take a breather in January, we expect it to resume cuts at upcoming meetings. Most FOMC members think interest rates at their current level (3.5%-3.75%) are weighing on economic activity, and they support modest further reductions to ease this drag***. We expect one to two 25 basis point (0.25%) cuts this year, leaving interest rates in the 3%-3.5% range.

James McCann
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg, **BLS, ***Federal Reserve, ****Atlanta Fed}

• Markets edge higher on strong productivity growth – Equity markets finished modestly higher on Thursday, as a broad range of sectors – led by energy and consumer staples – offset a pullback in technology stocks*. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.18%*. Internationally, Asia finished lower amid rising geopolitical tensions*. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies*. In commodities, WTI oil rebounded after its pullback in recent days*.
• Jobless claims rise modestly – Initial jobless claims increased to 208,000 this past week — in line with expectations — from 200,000 the prior week*. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, edged higher to 1.91 million, slightly above forecasts for a smaller rise to 1.87 million*. The unemployment rate has risen in recent months to 4.6%, and job openings contracted in November to 7.1 million, slightly below unemployment of 7.8 million*. Tomorrow's employment report for December will help provide a deeper look at the labor market, with forecasts calling for 55,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate to tick down to 4.5%*. We expect the current low-hiring, low-firing environment to persist, supporting gradual inflation moderation — though likely at a slower pace.
• Strong productivity gains drive unit labor costs lower – Nonfarm business sector productivity rose 4.9% annualized for the third quarter of 2025, ahead of estimates of 4.6% and marking the strongest reading in two years*. Hourly compensation grew 2.9% year-over-year – slightly above CPI inflation of about 2.7%* – resulting in continued positive real wage gains, on average. Growing disposable income should help support consumer spending and the broader economy, in our view. Unit labor costs, which reflect wage gains adjusted for changes in productivity, fell 1.9% annualized, below expectations for a 0.2% gain*. Lower unit labor costs should help ease inflation pressures, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}

• Stocks end mixed after fresh highs – Markets diverged today, as the Nasdaq advanced while the Dow slipped after touching record highs, amid ongoing geopolitical headlines and ahead of key U.S. labor data*. Bonds rallied, sending yields lower, following weaker-than-expected German retail sales, moderating eurozone inflation, and a decline in total U.S. job openings*. Oil prices fell after President Trump indicated Venezuela will ship 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the U.S., as Washington seeks greater control over the country’s industry*. Also making headlines, Trump threatened to pause capital returns for defense contractors and proposed a ban on single-home purchases by institutional investors, pressuring shares of defense companies and some asset managers. On the corporate front, Warner Bros. Discovery rejected Paramount’s latest bid, calling it inferior to its existing deal with Netflix. Meanwhile, precious metals paused after a strong 2025 and a solid start to the year, with both gold and silver declining today*.
• Small-caps and value lead early-year gains - Just a few days into the new year, markets are already digesting major geopolitical headlines while bracing for a wave of economic data ahead. Despite the headline volatility, equities have largely shrugged off the news, with major indexes hitting fresh highs yesterday*. While recent developments carry significant geopolitical implications, they do not materially alter the near-term outlook for the economy or oil supply, in our view, the factors markets truly care about. Meanwhile, a pro-cyclical rally is underway, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-caps and value-style investments outpacing growth*. We believe this reflects supportive fundamentals, including an expected broadening of earnings momentum both within and beyond mega-cap tech.
• Labor-market data in focus - Private payrolls, as reported by ADP this morning, rose by 41,000 in December, roughly in line with consensus expectations*. This moderate pace suggests a labor market that may be stabilizing after a soft patch over the past six months. Most job gains came from familiar sectors such as education and health services*. Encouragingly, for the first time in four months, firms with fewer than 50 employees added jobs*. This data precedes Friday’s December employment report, which will likely be closely watched for its implications on Fed policy. Last month’s report showed unemployment rising to 4.6%, a four-year high, but largely for constructive reasons as more workers re-entered the labor force*. We believe the current low-hiring, low-firing environment will persist. However, with economic activity remaining solid, hiring could pick up slightly. We expect monthly job gains to firm modestly into the 50,000–100,000 range, while a smaller labor supply—partly due to lower immigration—keeps unemployment near 4.5% in 2026.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg}