Thursday, 3/12/2026 p.m.

• Stocks fall amid energy supply concerns - Market focus remains on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict in the Middle East drives the largest disruption to global oil markets on record, affecting an estimated 7.5% of world supply and an even larger share of exports, according to the International Energy Agency. Major equity indexes finished broadly lower as energy prices climbed again, with oil up almost 10% to $95. Investor sentiment continues to swing with shifting expectations around the likelihood of a quick resolution, and conflicting public statements are adding to the uncertainty. The U.S. Energy Secretary noted that the U.S. Navy is currently “not ready” to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, though such operations could be feasible by month‑ Energy was the only sector trading higher today, while industrials, financials, and small‑caps lagged. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar rose ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
   
• Oil prices are below $100, but volatility remains high - A series of attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East pushed prices higher today despite yesterday’s coordinated, record‑setting release of emergency oil reserves. As major oil producers in the region scale back output, the International Energy Agency announced a 400‑million‑barrel release from strategic reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, about 40% of current U.S. stockpiles. The release provides a temporary buffer and is helping keep oil prices below the psychological $100 threshold. However, skepticism remains about whether these reserves are sufficient to offset reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, the duration of the conflict will determine how long elevated prices persist, in our view. Encouragingly, past geopolitical crises over the last 15 years that triggered sharp oil-price spikes have typically proven temporary, with prices often rising ahead of major events and peaking shortly after. For example, WTI peaked 10 days after the Israel–Iran conflict in the summer of 2025 and three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
   
• Fed in the spotlight next week – Amid the current energy crunch, which is likely to push inflation higher and growth lower in the near term, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next week and deliver a fresh set of economic and interest‑rate projections. Historically, central banks have tended to look through temporary spikes in oil prices. However, with inflation running above the Fed’s target for five years, the latest surge in energy costs makes it increasingly difficult for policymakers to justify rate cuts. Since the start of the conflict, bond markets have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut from June to October and have reduced the anticipated number of cuts this year from two to one. We expect the Fed to keep rates steady next week at 3.50%–3.75% and to avoid pre‑committing to any specific cutting path given the elevated uncertainty. Inflation expectations will be a key variable to monitor in the months ahead, in our view. So far, the rise appears concentrated in short‑term expectations, with long‑term measures remaining well anchored. If the conflict proves short‑lived, we think the downward trend in inflation should resume, which, in our view, would allow the Fed to deliver one or two cuts in the second half of the year.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet.} 

Wednesday, 3/11/2026 p.m.

• Iran headlines continue to drive markets – Oil prices increased to $88 per barrel today, weighing on stocks and bonds as investors continue to worry about the fallout from conflict in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Index fell 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 Index was down 0.4%, although better performance in the tech sector helped soften the decline in the S&P 500 and left the Nasdaq index marginally higher. This followed a mixed tone in equities overnight, with Asian stocks rallying, but with European markets down at the end of their trading day. Bond yields meanwhile continue to hit new recent highs, with the 10-year Treasury note now at 4.22% as investors parse the inflationary implications of higher oil prices.
   
• Policymakers to tap strategic oil reserves – The International Energy Agency announced a 400 million barrel release in strategy oil reserves, the largest in its history. For context, this represents more than double the release of reserves seen during the Russian invasion of Ukraine and constitutes an estimated third of total stockpiles across member countries. This comes amid severe ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, which, along with Iranian attacks, has prompted major energy producers in the region to scale back production. The release of strategic energy stockpiles should help mitigate some short-term supply disruptions, but markets will continue to look for signs that there is an end in sight for the military conflict and the associated disruptions to global energy markets. Iran has signaled that to agree to a ceasefire it will need international guarantees that neither the U.S. nor Isreal will strike the country in the future.
   
• February inflation data overshadowed by oil price shock – The February consumer price index (CPI) report came in as expected, with headline inflation up a firm 0.3% month-over-month, while the core measure was a little softer at 0.2% month-over-month. Scratching beneath the surface, there were some encouraging signals in the data, with the important shelter inflation component continuing to slow, helping offset some of the short-term pressure in goods prices as a result of last year's tariff increases. However, stepping back, the near-term narrative around inflation has shifted in the wake of surging oil prices, with these set to feed rapidly through to energy inflation in the March inflation report. In response, we expect headline CPI, which had been slowly cooling toward the Fed's 2% target, to reaccelerate over the next couple of months. Importantly, we think this should be a temporary dynamic, with markets pricing a decline in oil prices going forward, and with energy-price spikes typically creating one-off effects on inflation. However, this setback could make the Fed more inclined to leave rates on hold in the near term, meaning we will likely have to wait until later in 2026 for any further rate cuts, in our view.

James McCann;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet.} 

Tuesday, 3/10/2026 p.m.

• Stocks little changed as oil declines –U.S. equity markets were little changed on Tuesday, with the U.S&P 500 declining 0.2% while the Nasdaq closed near the flatline. Oil prices stabilized around $87 per barrel after briefly surging above $100 per barrel in yesterday's session, before retreating following comments from President Trump indicating that the conflict in Iran could be nearing an end. Overseas, Asian markets were sharply higher overnight on optimism around a potential near‑term off‑ramp in the conflict. Japan’s Nikkei rose nearly 3%, while Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 5%. European markets also traded higher, supported by the pullback in oil prices. In fixed-income markets, bond yields rose across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing at 4.15% and the 2-year yield at 3.59%.
   
• Key inflation data on the horizon – Inflation—and its implications for monetary policy—will be a key focus for investors through the remainder of the week, with February consumer price index (CPI) data due tomorrow and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) released on Friday. Economists expect both headline and core CPI to rise 2.5% year-over-year, while headline and core PCE are projected to increase 2.9%. The recent surge in oil prices has pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve interest‑rate cuts. Futures markets now imply only one full rate cut in 2026 and roughly a 50% probability of a second. While the Fed typically looks through inflation stemming from an oil‑related supply shock, the backdrop of persistently above‑target inflation since 2021—combined with past supply‑chain disruptions that fed into broader price pressures—suggests policymakers may proceed cautiously if elevated oil prices persist. Uncertainty remains around the duration of the conflict, but comments from President Trump yesterday indicated it may be nearing an end, contributing to a pullback in oil prices in the afternoon session. Oil futures also point to moderation ahead, with prices projected to fall below $80 per barrel by July and toward $70 by year‑ If this scenario unfolds, headline CPI would likely face some upward pressure in the near term; however, we expect the Fed to maintain its easing bias, ultimately delivering one or two rate cuts, in our view—even if the timing shifts later into 2026 or 2027.
   
• Equity leadership amid the Iran conflict – The conflict in Iran and the surge in oil prices have weighed on risk sentiment, leaving global equity markets broadly lower since the conflict began. Despite a rebound in today’s session, international markets have been among the laggards, with Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 8% month‑to‑date and Korea’s KOSPI Index down more than 11%. European equities are also weaker, with the Euro U.Stoxx 50 lower by more than 5%. In our view, the higher reliance of many international markets on energy imports has left them more vulnerable to oil‑price shocks, contributing to the recent equity‑market weakness. The U.S. has been a relative outperformer, with the U.S&P 500 down just over 1% in March. The technology sector has been a standout, rising more than 1% this month, supported by a rebound in the software industry, which is up 4.5%. History suggests that geopolitical conflicts have typically had a short‑lived impact on markets. Thus, we believe opportunities remain attractive across global equities over the coming year, and we continue to recommend an overweight to equities relative to bonds. U.Specifically, we see compelling opportunities in U.S. large‑ and mid‑cap equities, international developed small‑ and mid‑cap stocks, and emerging‑market equities.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Monday, 3/9/2026 p.m.

• Stocks rebound on potential conflict off-ramp –U.S. equity markets closed higher on Monday, reversing sharp losses at the open following comments from President Trump indicating that the conflict in Iran could be over soon. After briefly approaching $120 per barrel overnight, WTI crude oil fell sharply and finished below $90 per barrel as markets reacted to the possibility of a near‑term off‑ramp to the conflict. From a sector‑leadership perspective, technology outperformed, gaining more than 1% and extending its recent trend of relative strength. Energy and financials were the only sectors of the U.S&P 500 to finish lower. International equities weakened, with Asian markets down sharply overnight and major European indexes closing lower as well. Bond yields also moved lower Monday afternoon following President Trump's comments, with the 10‑year Treasury yield falling to 4.1% and the 2‑year yield slipping to 3.55%.
   
• Oil price shocks and the economy – The economic impact of the conflict will likely depend largely on its duration and the extent of further disruptions to energy supplies—both of which are difficult to forecast. With oil prices now at their highest level since 2022, upward pressure on headline inflation is likely, which could act as a headwind to economic activity. However, as noted in our Market Pulse, geopolitical events have historically produced only short‑term effects on financial markets. The U.S. is also a net exporter of oil, and its energy intensity—defined as total energy consumption divided by real GDP—has declined by roughly 70% since the 1950s*. In addition, as highlighted in our Weekly Market Wrap, we believe oil prices would need to rise and remain materially above current levels to pose a meaningful risk of recession. The U.S. has also entered this period with solid economic momentum. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and U.Services PMIs were firmly in expansionary territory for February, indicating healthy business activity. While Friday’s job report showed softer‑than‑expected employment gains, the unemployment rate remains low at 4.4%, and layoffs appear contained, with initial jobless claims averaging 216,000 over the past four weeks. Given these factors, we recommend that investors avoid making portfolio changes in reaction to headlines and instead maintain a well‑diversified strategy aligned with their long‑term goals.
   
• Portfolio opportunities amid market volatility – The duration and extent of supply disruptions stemming from the conflict remain uncertain, but we believe a healthy economic and market backdrop provides a measure of reassurance. Although geopolitical events can generate periods of short‑term volatility, they have historically resulted in limited lasting effects on markets. Accordingly, we continue to recommend that investors take a globally diversified approach to overweighting stocks versus bonds. In particular, we see attractive opportunities in U.S. large‑ and mid‑cap stocks. Healthy U.S. economic activity, supportive tax policy, and strong AI‑related spending trends may continue to provide a constructive backdrop for domestic equities, in our view. We also see attractive opportunities internationally, particularly within emerging‑market equities and international developed small‑ and mid‑cap stocks. The conflict in the Middle East has exerted more pressure on international markets, especially in regions such as Asia and Europe, which are more dependent on imported energy. A sharp appreciation in the U.S. dollar has further weighed on international equity returns over the past week. Even so, economic momentum abroad has strengthened in recent months. The U.S&P Global Composite PMI—a survey‑based measure of business activity—recently rose to its highest level since May 2023 in Japan and China, while readings in the eurozone and the United Kingdom also remained in expansionary territory. While geopolitical headlines may heighten near‑term uncertainty, we believe investors are best served by adhering to a disciplined, long‑term investment strategy instead of reacting to headlines. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Sources for data cited: *U.S. Energy Information Administration}

Friday, 3/6/2026 p.m.

• Spike in oil prices continues to rattle markets - As the Middle East conflict entered its seventh day, attention stayed on oil markets, where prices logged their biggest weekly surge in more than two decades—up 35%, surpassing the initial jump seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overnight, Qatar cautioned that Gulf producers may be forced to halt output within days, while the U.S. administration is exploring steps to ease price pressures. In that vein, the U.S. Treasury granted India a temporary license to increase purchases of Russian oil. While geopolitics remain the dominant driver of volatility, today’s U.S. data added to the risk‑off tone. Payrolls unexpectedly declined, and retail sales fell, largely due to severe winter weather. In markets, energy and defensive sectors outperformed. The U.S. dollar strengthened as a safe haven, reaching a three‑month high against the euro. Government bonds, however, remained under pressure this week as the surge in oil prices pushed inflation expectations higher.
   
• Weak jobs data add to investor caution - The U.S. economy unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, partly reversing January’s surprise payroll gain. Unemployment remains relatively low, but job losses were broad, with declines across both the private and government sectors. The weak report challenges the recent stabilization narrative and places the Fed in a difficult position, particularly as the rise in oil prices adds near‑term inflation pressure. As with any single monthly datapoint, we should avoid overextrapolating the trend—severe weather and labor disruptions may have weighed on hiring. Still, with global geopolitical uncertainty elevated, we think it is reasonable to expect that job growth may remain subdued in the months ahead. We continue to believe the Fed will be inclined to cut rates later this year, likely one or two times.
   
• Gauging the impact of the Middle East conflict – The economic consequences of the conflict will likely hinge on its duration and the extent of disruption to energy supplies—both difficult to forecast. Regionally, Asia and Europe are particularly exposed given their reliance on imported oil that moves through Middle Eastern shipping lanes. With no immediate signs of resolution, WTI crude is now at its highest level since late 2023, adding to inflation pressures that could weigh on consumer spending. Even so, history shows that geopolitical shocks typically have short‑lived market effects. Oil prices often rise in anticipation of major events and peak shortly afterward. For instance, WTI peaked just 10 days after the Israel–Iran conflict in the summer of 2025 and roughly three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.* Structural shifts have also reduced U.S. vulnerability to oil shocks. We estimate oil would need to rise above $100 for an extended period to meaningfully impede economic growth*. The U.S. has been a net oil exporter since 2019, and the economy is far less energy‑intensive than in the past. Since 1950, the energy needed to produce one unit of GDP has fallen by about 70%, driven by efficiency gains and the expansion of the services sector.* We therefore caution against making reactionary portfolio changes in response to headline‑driven global events, as such moves often come at the expense of long‑term returns*.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: Bloomberg. 
Sources for data cited: *Bloomberg, Edward Jones}