Wednesday, 3/18/2026 p.m.

• Markets close lower as Fed holds rates steady – Equity markets finished lower on Wednesday, as producer price inflation through February came in hotter than expected at 3.4% annualized. Declines in consumer staples and consumer discretionary stocks led the pullback. In international markets, Asia finished higher overnight — led by South Korea's Kospi index — while Europe was down. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies, as investors likely seek the relative stability of the world's reserve currency. In energy markets, WTI oil traded higher as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East constrain supply. We continue to see opportunities across markets and asset classes. Within equities, we favor U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, which we believe stand to benefit from their higher quality and broadening leadership. We also see potential in international developed small- and mid-cap and emerging-market equities, supported by global economic resilience and relatively attractive valuations. Within fixed income, we think international bonds can add diversification through exposure to different economic and interest-rate cycles, while emerging-market debt may also enhance income.
   
• Fed holds rates steady, as expected - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its March meeting today, holding the target range for the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, in line with forecasts. The Fed also updated its quarterly projections, maintaining its expectations for the Fed funds rate, still indicating one cut this year and another next year. FOMC hiked its outlook for inflation for 2026 and 2027, citing the temporary impact of higher oil prices and lingering tariff effects, while upgrading its estimate on stronger expected productivity. Monetary policy appears roughly neutral, with the fed funds rate near 3.65% and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation measure at 2.8%. A neutral policy rate is generally estimated to be 0.75%-1% above inflation*. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.27%. We still think the Fed remains on its rate-cutting path, likely moving the policy rate into the 3.25%-3.5% range by year-end. However, the labor market that is characterized by slower hiring and fewer layoffs should give policymakers more time to confirm that PCE is cooling sustainably toward the 2% target before delivering additional cuts. Additional monetary policy easing should help gradually reduce borrowing costs for households and businesses, likely supporting consumer spending and corporate earnings.
   
• Producer price inflation higher than expected – Producer price index (PPI) inflation rose to 3.4% annualized through February, above expectations to hold steady at 2.7%. More than half of the February rise in wholesale prices were attributable to services, which are up 3.8% year-over-year. We believe these readings indicate that inflation pressures remain sticky. Wholesale inflation is now significantly higher than CPI at 2.4%, even before factoring in higher energy prices. Because some components of PPI feed through to PCE, the Fed is likely to remain cautious over the near-term, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. Source for data cited: * Federal Reserve Bank of New York}

Tuesday, 3/17/2026 p.m.

• Markets build on Monday's rally – Equity and bond markets moved tentatively higher today despite a rise in oil prices, building on the improvement in sentiment seen yesterday. WTI hit $96 per barrel at close despite bullish comments from President Trump that the conflict in Iran was moving way ahead of schedule, with markets reacting to news of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East overnight. The S&P 500 index was up 0.3% over the day, with the small cap Russel 2000 index reporting a firmer 0.7% gain. This more upbeat tone continues to help push bond yields lower, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down 2 basis point today (0.02%) and around 10 basis points over the week so far (0.1%). Finally, we are seeing the dollar give back some of the safe-haven driven gains seen during the latest geopolitical shock, with the greenback now down 0.75% from its peak against a basket of trade weighted currencies.
   
• Gas prices continue to rise – Elevated oil prices continue to translate into higher prices at the pump for American households. The daily national average unleaded gasoline price has now risen to $3.80 per gallon, a full dollar higher than the 2026 low seen in January. In those states with the highest gas prices, like California, the cost of gas hit $5.50 yesterday. This means that the average cost of filling the tank of a midsize SUV in the U.S has risen by around $15 so far during the Iran crisis, and further increases are possible as we continue to see a pass through from higher crude oil. Then good news is that gas accounts for just 3% of total consumer spending according to weights used in the CPI basket, around half the share seen a decade ago on account of lower prices and shifting consumption patterns. However, higher energy prices will be felt across other inflation components, with diesel prices, a key input for freight, agriculture and construction, rising above $5 per gallon for the first time since 2022. The hope is that a relatively short-lived spike in these costs will limit their size, persistence and economic/market implications.
   
• Central banks in focus – We will get a sense of central bank reactions to the oil price shock this week amid a flood of central bank meetings. The Fed will garner most attention, with markets having responded to the spike in oil prices by trimming expectations for interest rate cuts, with current pricing pointing to just one 25 basis point (0.25%) cut later this year. This is consistent with forecasts provided by FOMC members back in December, and it will be interesting to see if the committee's median forecast at this meeting continues to point to at least some further policy easing in 2026. We think a spike in short term inflation will make the Fed more cautious around cuts in coming months, but still see room for a cut later this year should oil prices moderate from here. Elsewhere, we look forward to central bank meetings in Europe (UK, Eurozone, Sweden) and Japan, with market attention turning to potential hikes in these markets. We suspect these central banks will tread carefully given the potential fragility of local growth to higher oil prices, even as inflation spikes in the short term. The same dynamic applies in Canada, where the Bank of Canada will meet this week, and we do not expect policy tightening this year given signs of weak domestic activity rates.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet.} 

Monday, 3/16/2026 p.m.

• Stocks and bonds bounce on lower oil – Markets started the week on the front foot helped by a decline in WTI oil to $94 per barrel. The dip in oil prices reflected rising hopes that more oil tankers will be able to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. allowing Iran to ship its oil through this channel. President Trump meanwhile called on U.S. allies to send warships to help escort tariff through the Strait, although none have, as yet, offered this support. Finally, the International Energy Agency has signaled that it could release more energy reserves if needed. The S&P 500 index jumped 1% over the session, bringing the decline in this U.S. benchmark large cap index to just over 2% year-to-date. Lower oil prices also provided some relief in bond markets which have struggled in recent weeks, with a rally across the yield curve helping push yields on U.S. government bonds 4-5 basis points lower (0.04%-0.05%). Finally, the dollar, which has performed well during the latest geopolitical shock, depreciated today amid a more upbeat tone in markets.
   
• Signs of improving manufacturing momentum – before the latest shock – The manufacturing sector built on its strong start to 2026 in February, with output up 0.2%m/m, adding to an upward revised 0.8%m/m gain in January. This matches the better tone we have seen reported in manufacturing survey data, with the ISM manufacturing PMI pointing to a renewed expansion in a sector hit by trade policy uncertainty last year. More broadly, Q1 U.S. GDP growth looks to be tracking a strong start to the year through January and February data, with fading in government shutdown disruptions also likely to boost growth. However, it remains to be seen how large a dent to short term activity the latest oil shock, and uncertainty around the geopolitical outlook, will generate. The Empire State manufacturing sentiment survey for March deteriorated more than expected this morning, although this was driven by worse current conditions as opposed to expectations for future activity. We will be watching a wider sweep of survey data this month to try and understand how businesses are reacting to the threat of higher energy prices.
   
• Fed in focus this week – The Fed meets on Wednesday in the face of uncertainty over the outlook for oil and associated short term inflation pressures. Markets have responded to the spike in oil prices seen thus far by trimming their expectations for interest rate cuts, with current pricing pointing to just one 25 basis point (0.25%) rate cut later this year. This is consistent with the forecasts provided by FOMC members back in December, and it will be interesting to see if the committee's median forecast at this meeting continues to point to at least some further policy easing. Additionally, we will be listening carefully for hints from Chair Powell around how the Fed might balance the upside risk to inflation and downside risk to growth from an oil price shock. However, there are a couple of reasons to take any signals from this meeting with a pinch of last. First, a swing in oil prices in either direction could quickly change the Fed's thinking, and second, markets might slightly discount messages from Powell Chair given this will be one of the last of his term.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet, Atlanta Fed.} 

Friday, 3/13/2026 p.m.

• Stocks slide again – Markets closed the week on a soft note amid further signs of an escalation in the conflict in Iran. The S&P 500 index erased a near 1% gain earlier in the day to close 0.6% lower, continuing a run of steady declines over recent sessions. Bonds meanwhile were mixed at the close of what has been a difficult week in sovereign debt markets. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note finished two basis points higher (0.02%) after a further sell-off, while a rally in the shorter-dated two-year note helped push yields one basis point lower (0.01%), helped by rising expectations for Fed rate cuts after softer-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP data. WTI oil is trading at $99 per barrel, with investors continuing to closely monitor disruptions to global energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
   
• U.S. data point to slower growth and sticky inflation – The second estimate of fourth-quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised lower to 0.7% annualized this morning, half the pace of the initially reported 1.4% gain. Driving this downward revision was a combination of weaker consumer spending, investment, government spending and exports. While the headline looks concerningly weak, we need to remember that the government shutdown in the fourth quarter contributed to this slowdown. When we strip out the government sector, and some of the volatile components of GDP growth, like international trade and inventories, underlying U.S. growth looks healthier at 1.9%, reflecting solid consumer spending and business investment trends. Otherwise, January consumer spending was subdued at 0.1% month-over-month, pointing to a sluggish start to the year for consumers, although it is possible these figures were depressed by unusually cold weather. Finally, core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure of price growth, came in at a hot-looking 0.4% month-over-month in January. This leaves the year-over-year rate of inflation according to this gauge at 3.1%, significantly higher than the CPI equivalent, posting a potential hurdle to near-term rate cuts even before we consider the incoming energy price shock.
   
• Fed expectations remain sensitive to oil – The Fed meets next week amid elevated uncertainty. Oil prices are up around 40% year-to-date and remain highly volatile as investors try to understand how large and lasting disruptions to energy supplies will prove. Against this backdrop markets have been pricing out expectations for Fed easing, even if we are seeing a small reversal in this trend this morning. Current pricing suggests that the Fed will cut just once more this year, down from an expectation for two or more cuts at the end of February. The Fed seems unlikely to give strong guidance around next steps at its meeting next week, given the heightened uncertainty at present. However, markets might be sensitive to some of the hints it provides around how it might view the risks to inflation from an energy price shock, and how it might balance that risk against the hit to growth likely from higher prices.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet.} 

Thursday, 3/12/2026 p.m.

• Stocks fall amid energy supply concerns - Market focus remains on oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz as the conflict in the Middle East drives the largest disruption to global oil markets on record, affecting an estimated 7.5% of world supply and an even larger share of exports, according to the International Energy Agency. Major equity indexes finished broadly lower as energy prices climbed again, with oil up almost 10% to $95. Investor sentiment continues to swing with shifting expectations around the likelihood of a quick resolution, and conflicting public statements are adding to the uncertainty. The U.S. Energy Secretary noted that the U.S. Navy is currently “not ready” to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, though such operations could be feasible by month‑ Energy was the only sector trading higher today, while industrials, financials, and small‑caps lagged. Bond yields and the U.S. dollar rose ahead of next week's Fed meeting.
   
• Oil prices are below $100, but volatility remains high - A series of attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East pushed prices higher today despite yesterday’s coordinated, record‑setting release of emergency oil reserves. As major oil producers in the region scale back output, the International Energy Agency announced a 400‑million‑barrel release from strategic reserves, including 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, about 40% of current U.S. stockpiles. The release provides a temporary buffer and is helping keep oil prices below the psychological $100 threshold. However, skepticism remains about whether these reserves are sufficient to offset reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Ultimately, the duration of the conflict will determine how long elevated prices persist, in our view. Encouragingly, past geopolitical crises over the last 15 years that triggered sharp oil-price spikes have typically proven temporary, with prices often rising ahead of major events and peaking shortly after. For example, WTI peaked 10 days after the Israel–Iran conflict in the summer of 2025 and three months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
   
• Fed in the spotlight next week – Amid the current energy crunch, which is likely to push inflation higher and growth lower in the near term, the Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next week and deliver a fresh set of economic and interest‑rate projections. Historically, central banks have tended to look through temporary spikes in oil prices. However, with inflation running above the Fed’s target for five years, the latest surge in energy costs makes it increasingly difficult for policymakers to justify rate cuts. Since the start of the conflict, bond markets have pushed back expectations for the next rate cut from June to October and have reduced the anticipated number of cuts this year from two to one. We expect the Fed to keep rates steady next week at 3.50%–3.75% and to avoid pre‑committing to any specific cutting path given the elevated uncertainty. Inflation expectations will be a key variable to monitor in the months ahead, in our view. So far, the rise appears concentrated in short‑term expectations, with long‑term measures remaining well anchored. If the conflict proves short‑lived, we think the downward trend in inflation should resume, which, in our view, would allow the Fed to deliver one or two cuts in the second half of the year.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet.}