Daily market snapshot

• Stocks close higher: Stock markets moved higher Monday, extending gains from last week, with small-cap stocks outperforming*. With the recent rise, the S&P 500 is less than 2% below its all-time high reached in March. Sector performance was broad today, led by technology and communication services, with all sectors rising except real estate*. Global markets also rose across both Asia and Europe, though with some markets closed for holidays. The U.S. dollar was mixed versus major currencies. In the commodity space, WTI oil was up, near $79 per barrel, tracking gains in Brent crude on Saudi Arabia price hikes*. Gold also rose but remained about 3% below the all-time high set in April*.
• Corporate earnings remain in focus for the week ahead: With a light week on the economic calendar and 56 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results, markets will likely focus on earnings*. At this point in the first-quarter earnings season, companies have performed well relative to expectations, providing support for the recent rise in stock prices. With 80% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings so far, 77% have beaten analyst expectations, with an average upside surprise of 7.5%*. Year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter is 5.0%, which is the highest rate since the second quarter of 2022*. Sector performance is broad, with eight of the 11 sectors reporting year-over-year earnings growth*. We believe the continued broadening of earnings performance should allow lagging sectors to catch up and help extend the economic expansion.
• Bond yields lower: Treasury yields were modestly lower, with the 10-year yield just below 4.5%, following a decline of about 0.2% from recent highs. Short-term yields have also dropped but remain higher than intermediate-term yields, keeping the yield curve inverted. Slower payroll gains and wage growth released last week indicate a loosening labor market, driving expectations for lower inflation ahead. Our view is that the Fed should be able to cut rates in the back half of the year, which would support economic growth. Lower rates could increase reinvestment risk for cash and short-term CDs and bonds. Extending duration into intermediate- and long-term bonds and bond funds can help reduce reinvestment risk by locking in yields for longer.

Brian Therien, CFA
Senior Analyst

^*FactSet.

• Stocks and bonds rally after a softer jobs report - U.S. equity markets rose more than 1% on Friday with the Nasdaq outperforming as the 10-year Treasury yield fell sharply in response to a weaker than expected jobs report. Payroll gains and wage growth both slowed, helping solidify Chair Powell's message earlier in the week that the Fed is not looking to hike rates despite the lack of progress in inflation so far this year. Further boosting investor sentiment, shares of Apple rallied more than 7% after the company's earnings exceeded low expectations for the quarter*. The company also announced a record $110 billion stock buyback. The dollar fell against major currencies as markets started pricing back in two Fed rates cuts for the year*. Elsewhere, WTI oil finished the week below $80/barrel and posted its sharpest weekly pullback since February*.
• Wage gains cool as pace of hiring slows - The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs last month, below consensus estimates and the smallest gain in six months, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% from 3.8%. Almost half of the payrolls gains came from health and private education as construction and public sector hiring slowed*. Given the stubborn inflation in the services sector of the economy where labor costs carry an outsized impact, the focus was on average hourly earnings, which rose only 0.2% from the previous month vs. the 0.4% average in the first three months of the year. On an annual basis wage growth rose 3.9%, down from 4% for the first time since June 2021, an encouraging development for the Fed as it looks to bring inflation back to its 2% target*. The key takeaway in our view is that the labor market remains solid, but employment growth is slowing which should help ease some of the inflationary pressures and allow the Fed to implement its first rate cut in the back half of the year.
• Rate cuts delayed, not derailed; rising profits provide support - After the FOMC meeting this week markets breathed a sigh of relief that the Fed is not contemplating rate hikes at the moment, with Chair Powell characterizing policy "well-positioned" to deal with various paths. Today's jobs report reinforces this message. Nonetheless, as the progress on inflation has stalled, policymakers are looking to keep rates high for longer. We think the Fed has a bias to cut rates this year, but it will likely take several months and better inflation readings until policymakers gain more confidence in the inflation outlook. While the rise in bond yields this year triggered by a recalibration in Fed expectations is applying pressure on equity valuations, corporate earnings have continued to surprise to the upside, providing support. About 80% of the S&P 500 companies have reported results so far, and of those, an above-average 79% have beaten analyst expectations with an average upside surprise of almost 9%*. Mega cap tech has been a standout for its strong earnings delivery but growth for the rest of the market is improving as well. For the full year corporate profits for the S&P 500 are on track to grow a little over 10%, which would mark a meaningful acceleration from last year, helping keep the uptrend in stocks intact*. 

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA
Investment Strategist

^*FactSet.

• Equities see a post-Fed lift: Stocks finished higher on Thursday, finding some footing after a volatile day on Wednesday, as markets attempted to digest the message from the Fed's latest policy meeting. With equities rising and interest rates falling, the tone today appears to be one of cautious optimism that the Fed won't overreact to recent firm inflation data by tightening monetary policy further. With the latest jobs report due out tomorrow, today's action likely suggests that there is some comfort being found in expectations for ongoing healthy employment conditions. Technology, consumer discretionary and real estate, along with small-caps, led the way today, reflecting a return of risk appetite and a more upbeat mood around the cyclical outlook. Gold and oil prices were little changed, while global equities were mixed on the session.*
• Jobs, jobs, jobs: Although the Fed meeting yesterday was the headliner for the week, the spotlight will swing brightly toward the labor market, with the April employment report due out Friday morning. Rates have risen materially over the last month, as investors have come to grips with the fact that the Fed won't be able to cut rates any time soon given uncooperative inflation readings so far this year. The stock market has experienced a bit of indigestion as a result but has overall taken this adjustment relatively well, sitting just 4% below its all-time high. We attribute this to the ongoing strength in the economy that has made higher rates a bit more palatable. Thus, the attention will be squarely on the fresh labor-market data for signals around the prospects of ongoing resilience in consumer spending and overall GDP. Consensus expectations are calling for roughly 230,000 new jobs and a steady unemployment rate for the month. We think, however, that a particularly influential figure will be the trend in wage growth, as markets likely want to see that job growth is holding up at the same time that wages are normalizing, hitting the sweet spot of support for spending and relief on inflation pressures.
• Productivity remains a bright spot for the economy: The latest read on labor-force productivity showed productivity rose at an annual pace of 2.9% in the first quarter, up from 2.7% in the prior reading. Productivity growth has been a particularly bright spot for overall GDP in the last several quarters, a trend that we think has been supported by increased business investment in technology and efficiency, and also one that has the potential to be sustained longer-term by AI investments. Strong productivity growth provides a potential backdrop in which unemployment can remain low while inflation pressures simultaneously subside. One item of note in looking at the underlying data was the increase in labor costs, which jumped in the first quarter.  The annual rate of growth of labor costs has actually slowed to a more comfortable pace, but the surge to start 2024 is consistent with the recent bout of inflation worries, which will keep the market's focus on the balance between consumer prices and economic health, and on the ensuing implications for Fed policy ahead.

Craig Fehr, CFA
Investment Strategy

^*FactSet.

• Stocks closed mixed, as Fed Chair Powell downplays the notion of rate hikes:;: Stocks were mixed on Wednesday, closing below their highs of the session, after the FOMC kept rates on hold at 5.25% - 5.5%, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also indicated that is "unlikely that our next move will be a hike." Powell's personal view is that inflation will move lower later in the year, although his confidence in that view is lower after the recent string of upside inflation surprises. Markets nonetheless welcomed this less hawkish view from the Fed chair. In our view, the Fed can still be patient, but it remains on track for the first rate cut this year. Treasury bond yields also moved notably lower after the Fed meeting, with the 2-year Treasury yield down by 0.08% to around 4.95%*. These moves lower were also welcomed by markets, as the recent surge in Treasury yields had sparked volatility in both stocks and bonds.
• The Fed delivers a less hawkish message:Markets breathed a bit of a sigh of relief, as the Federal Reserve delivered a message that seemed less hawkish than expected. The Fed kept rates on hold at 5.25% - 5.5% today, as expected, and Powell's commentary during the press conference appeared less hawkish overall. While he did acknowledge the recent string of upside surprises in inflation during the first quarter has not given the Fed greater confidence that rate cuts are appropriate, Chair Powell noted that "it is unlikely that our next move will be a hike." This provided some relief to investors who were worried that rate hikes were back on the table for the Fed this year. In addition, when the Fed chair was asked if recent inflation data was anything beyond typical bumpiness, he responded with, "not really." This implies that the Fed does not see a material reacceleration in inflation ahead of us. Nonetheless, in our view, the Fed will need to see a string of lower inflation data in the months ahead before signaling a rate cut. We still believe, however, that this may happen by the back half of 2024. The Fed also outlined that it would slow the pace of its quantitative-tightening program by allowing $25 billion per month of Treasury bonds to mature from the central bank's balance sheet, down from the current $60 billion cap*. Slowing this program is also a form of policy-easing, putting less pressure on Treasury and mortgage bond markets.
• U.S. jobs report on Friday: In addition to the Fed meeting this week, investors will also digest the nonfarm-jobs report for the month of April. Expectations call for total jobs added to cool, from 303,000 last month to 240,000 this month*. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at a healthy 3.8%, while the important average hourly earnings figure is forecast to tick lower, from 4.1% year-over-year to 4.0%*. In our view, the U.S. labor market has been a critical element of consumer resilience, as the strong labor market has been a key reason that households continue to spend. However, we could see a downshift in the labor market, as leading indicators like job openings and quit rates have started to cool. While we would not expect a meaningful reacceleration in unemployment, some easing in the labor market – driven by increasing supply of labor and cooling demand – could cause wage gains to moderate further. In today's Fed press conference, Chair Powell also noted that a slowing labor market could be a risk to household consumption broadly. This, in our view, could also support some easing in services inflation and put downward pressure on core inflation.

Mona Mahajan
Investment Strategy 

^*FactSet.