Daily market snapshot

• Stock markets close higher and are on pace for a winning week – The S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday and remains on pace for a third week of gains. This comes as U.S. weekly jobless claims rose to their highest of the year at 231,000*. The higher jobless claims figure is another datapoint indicating some softness in the U.S. labor market. For the Federal Reserve, this may add conviction to its view that rates are sufficiently restrictive, and wage gains could also cool. Treasury yields were lower across the curve, with the 2-year Treasury yield, often considered a proxy for the fed funds rate, moving lower by 0.02%, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell by around 0.03%*. More broadly, yields have come down from recent highs, as markets have once again priced in two Fed rate cuts this year. The move lower in yields over the past couple of weeks has provided support for both equity and bond markets.
• The U.S. labor market shows early signs of softening – On Thursday morning, U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, above forecasts of 212,000 and last week's 208,000. This was the highest jobless claims figure of the year and the highest since August 2023*. While this is just one week of data and not yet a trend, the jobless claims data comes after last Friday's nonfarm-jobs report, which also surprised to the downside. Total jobs added in April were 175,000, well below last month's 315,000 and expectations of 240,000. The unemployment rate had also ticked higher from 3.8% to 3.9%*. Overall, while the U.S. labor market has been a source of strength for both the economy and consumer, in our view we may see a bit of cooling ahead. The supply of labor seems to be increasing as workers return to the workforce, while the demand for labor has been softening as job openings have decreased. While we would not expect a substantial rise in the unemployment rate beyond 4.0% - 4.5%, we do see better supply and demand balance and some downward pressure on wage growth, which may be supportive of lower services inflation.
• All eyes turn back to CPI inflation next week – Inflation will be front and center next week, with consumer price index (CPI) inflation for April released on Wednesday. After surprising to the upside for the first three months of the year, expectations are for both headline and core CPI inflation to moderate in April. Forecasts call for core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to cool to a 0.3% monthly gain after three straight months of 0.4% increases, which would be the first step in the right direction*. On an annual basis, core CPI is expected to tick down to 3.6% from 3.8%, and headline CPI is projected to decline to 3.4% from 3.5%*. We expect the "last mile" of inflation to take longer and require some patience, but we see further progress ahead. Supporting factors may include a moderation in shelter and used car prices, as well as a broader cooling in services inflation driven by slower wage growth. In our view, the Fed will likely need to see a series of three or so better inflation readings before signaling a first rate cut. We would expect these conditions to be in place by the last quarter of the year. 

Mona Mahajan
Investment Strategist

^*FactSet

• Stock-market rally pauses after winning streak - Equity markets were mixed today following four days of gains that pushed the S&P 500 within 1% off its record high. The Dow closed higher, adding to the streak, but the Nasdaq declined modestly, weighed by weakness in parts of tech. Shares of Shopify declined 18% on a surprise quarterly loss and disappointing guidance, while shares of Uber declined 5% after bookings missed estimates*. The economic calendar was light today, and sentiment was cautious, as investors are waiting for the next inflation report on 5/15 to gauge the outlook for interest rates. Bond yields and the dollar were higher, while WTI crude oil fell briefly to its lowest in almost two months before reversing higher to close near $80*. Overall, it was an uneventful trading session, with some hesitation ahead of a busy week of economic releases.
• Earnings season begins to wind down - With almost 90% of the S&P 500 companies now having reported earnings for the first quarter, results have come in better than expected, supporting the recent rebound in stocks. Companies have exceeded analyst estimates by 8.5%, which is the biggest upside surprise since the third quarter of 2021, driven by strong demand and an uptick in profitability, as input cost growth has moderated*. From a sector standpoint, communication services, consumer discretionary and technology continue to stand out for their strong growth, but other areas are also delivering solid results, namely industrials, financials and consumer staples. The only three sectors that are seeing earnings decline for the quarter are energy, materials and health care, with the latter reflecting a quarterly loss from Bristol Myers*. In our view, the continued economic expansion, combined with rising corporate profits, provides a positive backdrop for stocks despite the headwind of high interest rates for longer. We see an opportunity in areas of the equity market that have lagged and trade at lower valuations, such as U.S. mid-cap stocks and the equal-weight S&P 500, which better represents the performance of the "average" stock in the index.
• All eyes on CPI next week - The May rebound in stocks has so far erased most of the April losses, driven by strong earnings results as mentioned above, but also by expectations that the Fed will be able to deliver its first interest-rate cut later this year. Recent economic releases, like the advanced estimate of first-quarter GDP and the April jobs report, indicate that growth might be softening, while Fed Chair Powell leaned dovish at last week's press conference, suggesting that it is unlikely that the next policy move would be a hike. As a result, the bond market is now once again pricing in two rate cuts for the year*. While we think that the Fed has a bias to cut rates, it remains laser-focused on inflation to shape the path of its policy ahead. Therefore, all eyes will be on the April CPI (consumer price index), which is released a week from today. Expectations are for core inflation, which excludes food and energy, to cool to a 0.3% monthly gain after three straight months of 0.4% increases, which would be the first step in establishing a pattern of better readings that would be more consistent with moderating prices*. On an annual basis, core CPI is expected to tick down to 3.6% from 3.8%, and headline CPI is projected to decline to 3.4% from 3.5%*. We expect the "last mile" of inflation to take longer and require some patience, but we see further progress ahead. Supporting factors may include a moderation in shelter and used car prices, as well as a broader cooling in services inflation driven by slower wage growth.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA
Investment Strategist

^*FactSet

• Stocks edge higher: Equity markets closed mostly higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 posting a daily gain for the fourth consecutive day. Leadership was balanced, with most sectors of the S&P 500 finishing higher, led by real estate and utilities, which both gained over 1%.* Overseas, Asian markets were mixed overnight, while European markets closed mostly higher in response to better-than-expected retail sales data from the eurozone.* Treasury yields finished lower once again, with the 10-year yield down to around 4.45%.* The 10-year yield has pulled back meaningfully from its recent peak of 4.7% in response to last Friday's softer-than-expected jobs report and commentary from Fed officials that signaled that additional rate hikes are unlikely. On the corporate front, shares of Disney were under pressure, declining roughly 9%, after the company reported earnings that exceeded expectations but issued guidance below consensus estimates.*
• Sector leadership showing signs of broadening: 2023 was a year characterized by narrow leadership, with strong performance from a handful of mega-cap technology stocks the primary catalyst behind the S&P 500's 26% gain.* The technology, communication services and consumer discretionary sectors each returned over 40% in 2023, whereas no other sector returned over 18%.* The past three months, however, have seen a broadening of leadership, with cyclical and defensive sectors performing well alongside some of last year's leaders. After declining by 7% in 2023 and posting the lowest return among all S&P 500 sectors, utilities has been the top-performing sector since early February, gaining nearly 15%.** Cyclical sectors, such as energy, materials and industrials, have also performed well, with each sector higher by 7% or more. We believe market leadership could continue to broaden, with some of last year's laggards potentially playing catch-up. As part of our opportunistic equity-sector guidance, we recommend clients overweight utilities, consumer discretionary and industrials, while underweighting communication services, financials and materials as appropriate with their long-term goals.
• Global monetary policy in focus: With it being a quiet week on the domestic economic calendar, international economic data could guide the path in markets this week. Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) meeting will be in focus, with expectations for it to hold the official bank rate steady at 5.25%.* After peaking at over 11% in October 2022, U.K. inflation has fallen sharply over the past 18 months, with the March reading of consumer price index (CPI) inflation falling to 3.2% on a year-over-year basis.* Despite the progress, inflation remains above the BoE's 2% target, and improving economic activity (albeit from low rates) and wage growth that's running north of 5% year-over-year could slow the pace of disinflation over the coming months. This could delay but likely won't cancel rate cuts from the BoE, which we expect could occur later this year. We believe that opportunities and risks are balanced in developed international equities, and we recommend a neutral allocation as part of our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance.

Brock Weimer, CFA
Associate Analyst

^{*FactSet, **FactSet, S&P 500 Sectors Total Returns 2/6/2024 – 5/6/2024.}

• Stocks close higher: Stock markets moved higher Monday, extending gains from last week, with small-cap stocks outperforming*. With the recent rise, the S&P 500 is less than 2% below its all-time high reached in March. Sector performance was broad today, led by technology and communication services, with all sectors rising except real estate*. Global markets also rose across both Asia and Europe, though with some markets closed for holidays. The U.S. dollar was mixed versus major currencies. In the commodity space, WTI oil was up, near $79 per barrel, tracking gains in Brent crude on Saudi Arabia price hikes*. Gold also rose but remained about 3% below the all-time high set in April*.
• Corporate earnings remain in focus for the week ahead: With a light week on the economic calendar and 56 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to report results, markets will likely focus on earnings*. At this point in the first-quarter earnings season, companies have performed well relative to expectations, providing support for the recent rise in stock prices. With 80% of the S&P 500 companies having reported earnings so far, 77% have beaten analyst expectations, with an average upside surprise of 7.5%*. Year-over-year earnings growth for the first quarter is 5.0%, which is the highest rate since the second quarter of 2022*. Sector performance is broad, with eight of the 11 sectors reporting year-over-year earnings growth*. We believe the continued broadening of earnings performance should allow lagging sectors to catch up and help extend the economic expansion.
• Bond yields lower: Treasury yields were modestly lower, with the 10-year yield just below 4.5%, following a decline of about 0.2% from recent highs. Short-term yields have also dropped but remain higher than intermediate-term yields, keeping the yield curve inverted. Slower payroll gains and wage growth released last week indicate a loosening labor market, driving expectations for lower inflation ahead. Our view is that the Fed should be able to cut rates in the back half of the year, which would support economic growth. Lower rates could increase reinvestment risk for cash and short-term CDs and bonds. Extending duration into intermediate- and long-term bonds and bond funds can help reduce reinvestment risk by locking in yields for longer.

Brian Therien, CFA
Senior Analyst

^*FactSet.