Stock Market News Today

Wednesday 9/2/2026 p.m.

Stocks rise as oil and yield rally slows- Stocks rebounded today after a difficult start to September, with small-caps outperforming, as the sharp rise in oil prices and Treasury yields showed signs of losing momentum. Despite the first advance in four days, investor sentiment remains somewhat cautious amid elevated geopolitical tensions following a new wave of U.S. strikes on Iran, which recently helped push oil prices to their highest level since July. Diesel prices remain a key area of focus, hovering near their April highs and potentially adding to near-term inflation pressures. On the economic front, the August ADP private payrolls report showed job growth of 38,000, slightly below expectations, with education and health services accounting for much of the increase. In corporate news, Dell shares surged 15% after the company reported strong quarterly results, providing another encouraging sign that AI-related spending remains robust.
Yields and the Fed remain a key focus - Rising government bond yields have been the primary challenge for markets amid solid economic growth and strong corporate earnings, as higher rates continue to put pressure on equity valuations. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged slightly lower today after reaching 4.8% yesterday, its highest level since 2023. We believe several factors have contributed to the rise in yields, including uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path and increased bond issuance from both public and private borrowers. More recently, however, investor concerns have shifted toward the potential inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We expect that attention over the next two weeks will be centered on economic data releases that could influence the Fed's decision at its September 16-17 meeting. Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message, noting that economic growth remains solid, the labor market is stable, and inflation is still too high, suggesting that the Fed still has "work to do." We believe Friday's employment report, and perhaps even more importantly next week's inflation data, will play a significant role in determining whether policymakers decide to raise rates in September. Following Warsh's remarks, futures markets have increased the implied probability of a September rate hike to roughly 67%, up from about 35% before his speech.
Navigating seasonal headwinds with solid fundamentals - Historically, September has been the weakest month of the year for stocks, generating both the lowest average return and the lowest probability of positive performance. This seasonal pattern can be amplified during Midterm Election years, when political uncertainty often weighs on investor sentiment. We believe context, however, is important. Periods of September and October weakness have typically coincided with deteriorating economic conditions or markets that were already under pressure, neither of which appears to characterize the current environment. Moreover, the historical Midterm Election effect has generally been short-lived, with markets often regaining momentum as election-related uncertainty fades. Underlying fundamentals remain constructive, in our view. AI-related investment continues to help support corporate spending, earnings growth remains robust, and current estimates point to solid U.S. economic activity in the third quarter. At the same time, credit spreads remain tight and financial conditions are accommodative. While seasonal headwinds merit attention, they are not sufficient on their own to derail the broader market uptrend, in our view.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.}

Rising bond yields and renewed geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment to begin September – U.S. equity markets closed lower on Tuesday, with renewed upward pressure on bond yields weighing on investor sentiment, in our view. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to a year-to-date high of approximately 4.8%, while the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to just below 5.3%. The rise in government bond yields was not isolated to the U.S. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached 3% for the first time since 1996, while yields in the United Kingdom and the euro area also moved broadly higher. From a market-leadership perspective, health care, utilities, and energy outperformed the broader market, while cyclical sectors such as industrials, materials and consumer discretionary were among the laggards. Contributing to the rise in bond yields and the risk-off tone in equity markets was renewed upward pressure on oil prices. Two oil tankers were reportedly attacked while transiting the Strait of Hormuz late Monday, followed by additional U.S. strikes against Iranian targets on Tuesday. In response to the attacks and the broader escalation in regional tensions, WTI crude oil rose by over 5%, finishing just above $90 per barrel.
Global rise in bond yields weighs on sentiment – Rising bond yields were back in focus on Tuesday, with government bond yields across the globe moving higher and back near multi-year highs. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 3%, its highest level since 1996, while 10-year government bond yields in Germany, the United Kingdom, and France are also near multi-year highs. U.S. yields followed suit, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to a year-to-date high of approximately 4.8% today. As we outlined in a recent Weekly Market Wrap, we believe several factors are contributing to the rise in global bond yields, including elevated corporate issuance, large and persistent U.S. budget deficits, uncertainty around inflation, expectations for additional interest-rate hikes by global central banks, and greater compensation demanded by investors for holding longer-maturity bonds amid an uncertain backdrop. We expect these factors to remain prevalent through the remainder of the year, and we believe the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is likely to trade between 4.5% and 5%. Although yields that are higher than those of recent years help improve the potential for fixed-income returns over a multi-year horizon, our expectation that yields will remain elevated through year-end suggests limited scope for meaningful price appreciation in investment-grade bonds over the near term. Against this backdrop, we recommend that investors consider maintaining a neutral duration posture, or interest-rate exposure, relative to the U.S. investment-grade benchmark. At the same time, we do not expect the rise in bond yields to derail what we continue to view as a constructive backdrop for equities, supported by robust corporate profit growth and steady economic activity. Accordingly, we recommend that investors consider overweighting stocks relative to bonds, with a particular emphasis on U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks and emerging-market equities.
Labor demand and manufacturing activity in focus – Labor-market data was in focus today, with the July JOLTS job openings reading coming in at just under 7.3 million, slightly below consensus expectations. After a period of historically tight labor-market conditions in the years immediately following the pandemic, we would characterize current labor-market conditions as broadly balanced, with the number of job openings modestly exceeding the number of unemployed workers through the end of July. Importantly, we believe the labor market remains supportive of household spending and economic activity, with hiring continuing at a modest pace and layoffs remaining limited. Given these more balanced conditions, we also do not view the labor market as a meaningful source of inflationary pressure at present. In addition to the labor-market data, the August ISM Manufacturing PMI provided an update on the goods-producing side of the economy. The headline index edged down to 54.6 from 55.6 in July but remained comfortably above the expansion-contraction threshold of 50, marking the eighth consecutive month of expansion. Looking beneath the headline, the production subindex was little changed at a healthy 58.3, compared with 58.5 in July. Meanwhile, the forward-looking new orders component declined to 53.7 from 56.7 but remained in expansionary territory, pointing to continued growth in demand, albeit at a more moderate pace. Perhaps the fly in the ointment in today’s report was the prices index, which remained elevated and unchanged from July at 71.1. This suggests to us that inflationary pressures remain in the pipeline, potentially reflecting, in part, the rise in oil prices over the past month. Taken together, we view today’s batch of economic data as evidence that labor-market conditions remain broadly balanced, while manufacturing activity continues to expand at a healthy pace following a prolonged period of stagnation from late 2022 through 2025. While upside risks to inflation remain, we expect healthy economic growth through year-end.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Stocks edge lower following escalation in the Middle East – U.S. equity markets closed modestly lower on Monday following reports that U.S. forces struck Iranian targets over the weekend, marking the first exchange of fire between the two countries since late July. Oil prices traded higher in response, while the equity-market reaction was relatively contained, with the major U.S. averages posting modest declines on the day. For the month, the S&P 500 gained approximately 2.6%, defying August’s historically weak seasonal pattern. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed overnight, while European markets traded mostly lower. In bond markets, longer-term Treasury yields closed higher, with the 10-year yield ending the day near 4.75%. Shorter-term yields were little changed, with the 2-year yield finishing around 4.34%.
Markets look past escalation in the Middle East – Geopolitical tensions escalated over the weekend, with U.S. forces striking Iranian targets that U.S. officials said were preparing to deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by launching missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan, although most of the incoming missiles were reportedly intercepted. The military action marked the first direct exchange of fire between the two sides since late July. Oil prices moved higher in response, while the reaction in equity markets was more contained. Although equity markets experienced a brief period of volatility at the onset of the conflict this spring, with the S&P 500 falling roughly 9% from its previous all-time high, stocks have since proven resilient in the face of continued uncertainty, with U.S. and international equity markets firmly higher year-to-date. While the path ahead in the Middle East remains uncertain, we continue to believe the outlook for global equity markets is constructive, supported by robust profit growth and steady economic activity. Against this backdrop, we recommend that investors consider overweighting U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, along with emerging-market equities.
Labor-market data in focus this week – Investors will have a busy week of labor-market data to digest, beginning tomorrow with the July JOLTS job-openings report, followed by ADP private-payroll data on Wednesday. Friday will bring the August nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment report, with markets expecting payrolls to have risen by 65,000 and the unemployment rate to have edged higher to 4.2%. Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish-leaning comments on Friday, futures markets have moved to price in roughly a 65% probability of an interest-rate hike at the September meeting, up from approximately 35% before his remarks. In our view, the August labor-market and inflation data released before the September 16 meeting will be important in shaping the Fed’s decision. With inflation having remained above the Fed’s target since 2021 and Chair Warsh characterizing labor-market conditions as consistent with full employment, the Fed’s focus will likely center on the inflation side of its dual mandate. While a September hike is not a foregone conclusion, we expect the Fed to have limited tolerance for meaningful upside inflation surprises and to require sustained evidence of moderating core price pressures to remain on hold.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Stocks edge lower following hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh – U.S. equity markets closed lower Friday, reversing modest opening gains after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains uncomfortably high for policymakers. Markets interpreted his remarks as hawkish, with Treasury yields moving higher, particularly at the shorter end of the yield curve. The 2-year Treasury yield gained 0.12 percentage points, finishing at 4.35%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.72%. Futures markets also raised the implied probability of a September rate hike from roughly 35% to around 55% following Warsh’s remarks. Despite Friday’s modest declines, stocks were broadly higher for the week, supported by strong technology-sector performance following several upbeat earnings announcements. Overseas, Asian markets finished mixed, while European markets were mostly higher after the eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator improved in August. In commodities, oil prices were little changed, with WTI crude oil closing near $83 per barrel.
Odds of a September rate hike rise following Fed Chair Warsh’s remarks – Monetary policy was in focus Friday as investors assessed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks on the economic outlook and conduct of monetary policy at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Warsh characterized underlying economic activity as solid, supported by robust business investment, steady consumer spending and labor-market conditions consistent with full employment. Perhaps providing some clarity following the ambiguity surrounding the July meeting, Warsh also reaffirmed that 2% inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, remains the Fed’s “firm and fixed” target. On inflation, Warsh noted that price pressures remain above the Fed’s objective across a range of measures. He emphasized that policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward 2% “clearly and at sufficient speed,” adding that “otherwise, we have work to do.” Markets interpreted the remarks as hawkish, with short-term Treasury yields rising and the market-implied probability of a September rate hike increasing from roughly 35% on Thursday to around 55% following the speech. Before the September meeting, policymakers will receive another employment report and the August consumer price index reading, both of which will likely factor into the decision. However, with inflation having remained above the Fed’s 2% target since 2021, we believe policymakers have limited tolerance for further upside inflation surprises.
Equity markets navigating well through a seasonally weak period – The S&P 500 is on pace for a solid monthly gain in August, rising more than 3% through yesterday’s close. That strength comes during what has historically been a softer period for stocks. Since 1970, August and September have generated average returns of 0.16% and -0.82%, respectively, with positive returns 57.1% and 44.6% of the time.* By comparison, the other 10 months have returned an average of 0.96%, with positive returns roughly 62.5% of the time.* After a strong first eight months of the year, a period of consolidation would not be surprising, in our view, particularly as the market enters the seasonally weaker month of September and the midterm elections approach. Nevertheless, we believe robust profit growth and healthy economic activity continue to provide a supportive fundamental backdrop. As a result, we continue to favor stocks over bonds, particularly U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks and emerging-market equities.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.}
^{Source for data cited:*FactSet, Edward Jones.}

Technology stocks lead markets higher – U.S. equity markets closed higher on Thursday, as strong gains in technology stocks more than offset weakness across most other sectors. Sentiment toward the tech sector appeared to improve following better-than-expected earnings reports from NVIDIA, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike. The positive equity-market response came despite a modest rise in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.67%. International markets were softer, as Asian equities finished mostly lower overnight and European shares broadly declined. In energy markets, WTI oil rose to nearly $84 per barrel following reports that Iran and Oman plan to share revenue from managing ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, again raising the prospect of tolls to pass the waterway. The U.S. dollar was little changed against major currencies.
Strong NVIDIA results help reinforce the AI investment theme – AI chipmaker NVIDIA reported second-quarter revenue and earnings that exceeded expectations after Wednesday's market close. The company also issued guidance above consensus estimates, providing further evidence that demand for AI-related computing infrastructure remains strong. Better-than-expected results from customer relationship management software provider Salesforce and cybersecurity company CrowdStrike lifted both companies' shares and helped support sentiment across the broader technology sector. These results help reinforce our view that the AI infrastructure buildout remains a durable investment theme. More broadly, the strong quarterly earnings season is coming to a close. With 96% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, 86% have beaten analysts' estimates by an average upside surprise of 27%. Earnings growth has also been broad-based, with 10 of the 11 sectors reporting year-over-year gains. We believe this wider participation could help make the market's advance more durable by reducing its dependence on a small group of mega-cap companies. It may also help create a more supportive environment for diversified portfolios, including value-oriented and cyclical allocations.
Jobless claims point to continued labor-market resilience – Initial jobless claims declined to 203,000 this past week, below expectations for 210,000. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, also fell to 1.78 million, compared with forecasts for 1.79 million. Together, the figures suggest that layoffs remain limited and that labor-market conditions are relatively healthy, even as the pace of hiring has slowed from earlier in the year. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, slightly below the Fed's longer-run projection of 4.2%, which is widely considered to be its estimate of full employment. With the Fed's employment mandate largely being met, officials should be able to focus more heavily on inflation, which remains well above the 2% target. Policymakers may be inclined to hike rates later this year or early 2027, though the data appear to at least support a higher-for-longer policy stance, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

Markets close modestly lower – U.S. equity markets closed modestly lower on Wednesday, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq lagging the S&P 500. This comes as oil prices fell toward the lows of the week, with WTI crude oil down by around 0.5% to $82. Meanwhile, Treasury yields moved slightly higher, as the headline PCE inflation metric ticked higher in July to 3.7% year-over-year. Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.3%, in line with forecasts but still well above the 2.0% target. Treasury yields ticked higher across the curve, with the 10-year yield up by about 0.01% to 4.65%. In our view, the 10-year yield is likely to remain in the 4.5% to 5.0% range for the remainder of the year, although a rapid move to the higher end of this range could weigh on stock market sentiment. Nonetheless, equity markets have been supported by strong earnings growth and resilient personal consumption, which was revised higher in the second-quarter GDP estimate.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation in line with estimates – Headline PCE inflation for the month of July was up 3.7% year-over-year, a tick higher than the 3.6% forecast and flat from last month's reading. Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, came in at 3.3%, in line with forecasts and last month's reading. Core PCE inflation is often considered the Fed's preferred inflation metric, and this remains well above the 2.0% target. Goods inflation decreased by 0.1% in today's reading, driven by a drop in gasoline and energy-related goods, as well as a decline in household equipment. Services inflation, however, rose by 0.3% for the month, as pricing in areas like financial services and insurance, as well as housing, moved higher. In our view, the stickier core inflation likely adds to the case for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. However, we expect that upcoming consumer price index (CPI) inflation as well as labor-market data will be critical inputs ahead of the next September 16 FOMC meeting.
Positioning portfolios in a higher-rate environment – We expect uncertainty about inflation, fiscal concerns in the U.S., increased bond issuance, and broadly resilient economic activity to keep interest rates higher for a while longer, though largely within a range of 4.5% to 5.0% for the 10-year Treasury over the remainder of the year. While this may limit the potential for meaningful price appreciation in bonds, we think higher yields have helped improve the longer-term appeal of investment-grade bonds and help reinforce their role as a strategic allocation in a well-diversified portfolio. Nonetheless, we believe the outlook over the next 12 months favors equities over fixed income, particularly given the support from strong profit growth and healthy economic activity. Within equity markets, we acknowledge the potential for a period of near-term consolidation after what's been a solid move higher in 2026. August and September have historically been seasonally weaker months for stocks, and uncertainty could increase as the midterm elections approach, but periods of weakness may provide opportunities to add to equites, in line with your investment goals and risk tolerance. We specifically favor U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, which we believe offer an attractive combination of quality, exposure to artificial intelligence, and sensitivity to continued economic resilience. We also favor emerging-market stocks, which we believe provide international exposure to strong profit growth tied to the AI buildout, while trading below their 10-year average forward price-to-earnings multiple.

Mona Mahajan;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

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The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

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The Investment Policy Committee (IPC) defines and upholds Edward Jones investment philosophy, which is grounded in the principles of quality, diversification and a long-term focus.

The IPC meets regularly to talk about the markets, the economy and the current environment, propose new policies and review existing guidance — all with your financial needs at the center.

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Investment Policy Committee

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