• Markets edge higher to begin the week – U.S. equity markets closed modestly higher on Monday as investors continued to monitor developments in the Middle East. Over the weekend, the U.S. administration indicated that strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure could begin as early as Tuesday evening if negotiations fail to yield an agreement. Subsequent reports suggest that discussions regarding a potential ceasefire remain ongoing, although the prospects for a durable resolution appear uncertain. On the economic front, the ISM Services PMI remained in expansion territory in March at 54; however, the prices index rose to its highest level since October 2022, potentially signaling upside risks to inflation. Treasury yields moved modestly higher on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.34% and the 2-year yield around 3.85%. Oil prices also edged higher on Monday, with crude settling at approximately $112 per barrel.
   
• March employment data points to resilience – Last Friday’s March jobs report provided further evidence of underlying resilience in the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000, significantly above expectations for a gain of 60,000. Although payroll growth in the prior two months was revised modestly lower by a combined 7,000, the solid March increase brought the three-month average gain in nonfarm payrolls to 68,000, consistent with our expectation entering the year for monthly job growth in the 50,000 to 100,000 range. Job gains in March were broad-based. Goods-producing sectors, including manufacturing and construction, posted solid employment gains, while service-providing industries such as health care saw strong job growth as well. In addition, the unemployment rate declined to 4.3%. While the current energy shock presents downside risks to both economic activity and labor-market conditions, we believe the March employment report remains consistent with a stable labor market. Although hiring has slowed relative to the immediate post-pandemic period, we think a more moderate pace of job growth is likely sufficient to sustain full employment, given slower population growth associated with tighter immigration policy. As a result, we expect the labor market to remain characterized by slower hiring but limited layoffs, with job growth averaging 50,000 to 100,000 per month in 2026 and the unemployment rate holding near 4.5%.
   
• Price check ahead – Friday’s release of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will provide the first indication of how the recent energy shock is affecting consumer prices. Economists expect headline CPI to rise 3.1% year-over-year, up from 2.4% in February. The increase in energy prices is likely the primary driver, as WTI crude oil averaged roughly $90 per barrel in March, compared with $64 per barrel in February, pointing to meaningful upside pressure on the energy component of the index. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is also expected to firm, with consensus estimates calling for a 2.7% annual increase, up from 2.5% in the prior month. From the Federal Reserve’s perspective, we believe these upside inflation risks support a wait-and-see approach to any additional interest-rate cuts. Consistent with that view, futures markets are pricing in the Fed remaining on hold throughout 2026. That said, our base case remains that the Fed’s easing cycle, while potentially delayed, is still intact, with the Fed ultimately delivering one to two additional rate cuts over the course of this cycle.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

Holiday: There will be no Daily Snapshot on Friday, April 3, 2026, in observance of Good Friday.

• Markets reverse losses on hopes of a reopening in the Strait of Hormuz –Bonds and equities shook off a weak start to today's session to close higher, helped by building hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could at least partially reopen. These encouraging signals had little effect on spot oil prices, which remain elevated at $112 per barrel but pushed down expectations for prices later in 2026, according to forward markets. In response, the S&P 500 index finished 0.1% higher, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 delivered larger gains. U.S. government bond markets were down at market open, but rebounded through the day with yields closing lower. The dollar strengthened against a basket of trade-weighted currencies, and gold prices moved lower.
   
• President Trump strikes a combative tone – Hopes for a de-escalation in the conflict in Iran had built this week after comments from President Trump that the military campaign would be over shortly, and that the U.S. could step back even if it has not secured a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the president's address to the nation last night provided little clarity on what an off-ramp might look like, and, if anything, warned of further escalation in the short term at least. There was a reference to ongoing discussions with Iranian leadership, but little detail, and the president signaled that the U.S. bombing campaign would continue, if not intensify. Market concerns over these headlines were calmed by news that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The prospect of increased oil flows through this important waterway is an encouraging step, but uncertainty remains high around a path to a fuller reopening and normalization of global energy markets.
   
• A health check heading into the energy shock – Tomorrow's nonfarm-payroll report for March will provide a timely check-in on the health of the U.S. labor market in the early innings of the oil shock. The February reading showed a disappointing 90,000 decline in payrolls, although we suspect this was at least partly driven by strike action and seasonal dynamics in early 2026. March should show some rebound, in our view, with the Bloomberg economist consensus penciling in a solid 75,000 rise in payrolls over the month. Other labor-market indicators look consistent with this forecast, with initial unemployment insurance claims low, ADP private sector employment accelerating slightly, and survey data pointing to still solid labor-market dynamics. The risk stands that higher energy costs and rising uncertainty over the outlook could further discourage hiring and push unemployment higher. However, such a deterioration would likely take time to materialize and require a larger and more prolonged oil price spike, in our view.

James McCann ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.} 

• Stocks add to the rally on optimism that the end of the war is near - Major equity indexes begun the new month and quarter on a higher note, adding to yesterday’s S&P 500 rally, the strongest since May 2025. The move has been supported by President Trump’s comments suggesting that the war with Iran could be over within two to three weeks, with the U.S. potentially stepping away regardless of whether a deal is reached with the current regime. The president is scheduled to deliver a national address tonight focused on Iran. While details remain unclear, markets appear to be pricing in a degree of de-escalation. WTI crude oil prices dropped slightly below $100 per barrel, down about 1.8% from yesterday on the news, although traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains near a standstill. Meanwhile, bond yields slightly rose after recent U.S. economic data surprised to the upside.
   
• Economic data highlight solid trends heading into the energy price spike - February retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, exceeding consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain and accelerating to the highest pace since July 2025. Control group retail sales, which better capture core consumer spending trends and feed directly into GDP, also increased a strong 0.5%. Together, the data help reinforce the narrative of a resilient consumer heading into the March headwind from sharply higher gasoline prices. On the employment front, U.S. companies added more jobs than expected last month, with private payrolls increasing by 62,000 versus expectations for 40,000, suggesting the labor market may be stabilizing. Most of the private sector hiring was still led by the education and health services sectors, which have been responsible for the majority of job creation in the last year. Pay growth for job-stayers was unchanged for the third month at 4.5%, while pay growth for job-changers accelerated to 6.6% from February's 6.3%.
   
• Diversification helped portfolios better weather first-quarter volatility - Most major U.S. indexes declined in the first quarter, a period marked by headline-driven volatility and shifting market leadership. Early in the quarter, stocks traded within a narrow range before breaking down amid escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting energy supply shock. The S&P 500 posted a quarterly decline after three consecutive quarters of gains. Notably, however, the equal-weight S&P 500 finished the quarter in positive territory, as did small- and mid-cap stocks. International equities also outperformed, with emerging-market stocks ending the quarter flat. Beneath the surface, key themes included continued AI-driven disruption, a rotation away from mega-cap technology stocks, and a reduction in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Energy and materials led the market, while financials and consumer discretionary sectors lagged. As we turn the page to the second quarter, much of the headline uncertainty remains. That said, we believe relatively steady economic growth and rising earnings can provide support, with diversification continuing to help smooth periods of market volatility.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.} 

• Stocks trade higher on hopes for an off-ramp to the conflict in Iran – U.S. equity markets closed higher on Tuesday, supported by reports that President Trump stated he is willing to end U.S. military operations in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. From a leadership perspective, most sectors finished the day in positive territory, led by technology and communication services, which each gained over 4%. Strong performance in these sectors led to a 3.8% gain in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 and Dow notched gains of 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Bond yields were modestly lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.32% and the 2-year yield at 3.79%. While optimism around a potential off-ramp to the conflict provided support for equity markets, oil prices were only modestly lower and remain above $100 per barrel, reflecting continued uncertainty surrounding the timing and path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
   
• Markets remain headline-driven – Developments related to the conflict in Iran continue to be the primary driver of market performance. Most recently, reports suggest the U.S. may be willing to end its military operations in Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Equity markets have responded positively on optimism around a potential near-term off-ramp, while bond yields have moved lower. However, uncertainty persists following reports that Iran struck an oil tanker off the coast of Dubai. In addition, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a crawl, and the timeline and path for reopening remains uncertain. Reflecting these risks, oil prices were only modestly lower on Tuesday, with crude oil still holding just above $100 per barrel. We expect markets to remain sensitive to conflict-related headlines in the coming weeks, and volatility may persist. That said, we believe the recent pullback in equity markets could create attractive opportunities for long-term investors. In our view, U.S. large- and mid-cap equities appear well positioned, supported by healthy profit growth, continued investment in artificial intelligence, and resilience in the U.S. economy. We also see opportunities in international developed small- and mid-cap equities, which we believe offer relatively attractive valuations, as well as in emerging-market equities that could benefit from sustained enthusiasm around AI.
   
• Labor-market data in focus – Labor-market data will be in focus for investors for the remainder of the week, with JOLTS job openings for February in line with expectations this morning, ADP employment data for March due Wednesday, and the March nonfarm-payrolls and unemployment report scheduled for Friday. Labor-market conditions have eased from the historically tight levels seen in the immediate post-pandemic period but remain healthy, in our view. Conditions are characterized by modest job growth and limited signs of elevated layoffs. Reflecting this trend, nonfarm-payroll growth slowed to a three-month average of roughly 6,000 jobs as of February. However, indicators of job losses remain contained, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4% and initial jobless claims averaging 213,000 in 2026—well below the 30-year average of more than 300,000. We expect modest job growth to persist through 2026. Coupled with low levels of layoffs and slowing labor-force growth—potentially reflecting tighter immigration policy—we believe the unemployment rate is likely to remain contained around 4.5%. In our view, this backdrop should remain broadly supportive of household spending.

Brock Weimer, CFA ;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}