• Markets edge lower as consumer stocks pull back - Equity markets finished modestly lower on Thursday, as gains in industrials and health care helped offset weakness in the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors. Bond yields declined, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near 4.39%. In energy markets, WTI oil rose on renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, though prices remain well below their recent peak. If sustained, lower oil prices would likely help ease inflation concerns and support consumer sentiment. However, geopolitical risks remain fluid and could continue to be a source of volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies but has remained broadly rangebound in recent trading.
   
• GDP revision shows stronger-than-expected growth– An updated GDP report showed that the U.S. economy expanded at 2.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, above expectations that the prior 1.6% estimate would remain unchanged. The upward revision was driven primarily by a smaller drag from imports, which are subtracted from GDP. Partially offsetting that improvement, consumer spending was revised lower, pointing to some moderation in household demand and perhaps contributing to today's pullback in consumer stocks. Higher domestic investment provided some additional support, as business spending remains strong. Overall, the report suggests that the economy entered the second quarter with better momentum than previously thought, recovering from the fourth-quarter slowdown that was partly driven by the government shutdown.
   
• Fed's preferred inflation measure remains elevated – Headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index inflation rose to 4.1% year-over-year in May, matching forecasts. Energy prices were a major contributor, up 24.3% from a year earlier, while goods prices also continued to show pressure. Core PCE inflation, which excludes the more-volatile food and energy categories, ticked up to 3.4%, slightly above estimates pointing to 3.3%. With both headline and core inflation moving further above the Fed's 2% target, we expect policymakers to remain on hold as they have since the start of the year. A resilient labor market and stronger-than-expected GDP growth should give policymakers more room to prioritize inflation risks, in our view. If the recent pullback in energy prices persists, the Fed may be reluctant to respond to what could prove to be a temporary oil-supply shock. However, if higher energy costs feed into broader goods and services inflation — or if long-term inflation expectations move higher — we think policymakers may be more inclined to keep rates higher for longer and possibly consider a hike.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy 

^{Source for all data: FactSet.} 

• Stocks end mixed as tech rotation continues - Following yesterday’s tech-driven decline of more than 1% in major indices, investor sentiment stabilized today, but the weakness in semiconductors persisted. The S&P 500 was slightly lower, but the Dow ended higher, supported by lower oil prices and easing bond yields. WTI crude fell more than 4%, trading near $70 per barrel, the lowest level since early March. Progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz is helping ease concerns about supply disruptions and is beginning to bring relief at the pump, although the administration has directed the Department of Justice to review gasoline prices, arguing they have not declined enough. Moderating inflation expectations are also relieving pressure on rates, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.41%. The Nasdaq underperformed as investors await Micron’s earnings after the close, which will refocus attention on AI spending and the elevated expectations surrounding it. In corporate news, Alphabet is set to replace Verizon Communications in the Dow, effective before the market opens on June 29, 2026.
   
• Falling oil prices help provide consumer and Fed relief - Oil prices are extending their decline today, with WTI crude trading near $70 per barrel, the lowest level since the start of the Middle East conflict. Following the signing of the Iran agreement, the Strait of Hormuz is reopening, boosting supply. The EIA reported last night that UAE exports have recovered to nearly 85% of pre-war levels. At current prices, oil has retraced almost all of its March and April gains, offering relief at the pump for consumers ahead of the summer driving season. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core personal consumption expenditures (core PCE), is due tomorrow and is expected to edge up to 3.4% from 3.3% in May, marking the highest reading since October 2023 and reinforcing the Fed’s hawkish tilt. However, if oil prices remain contained, May likely marked the peak in headline inflation. This would provide the Fed with some breathing room to maintain a prolonged pause, in our view.
   
• First-half performance check - With just a handful of trading days left in the quarter and the first half of the year, equities remain on solid footing, with several indices near all-time highs, including the Dow and the Russell 2000, a proxy for U.S. small-caps. While geopolitical uncertainty drove a near-correction earlier in the year, recent de-escalation has helped lift sentiment. The S&P 500 is up about 10%, supported by strong corporate earnings, even as valuations have modestly compressed since the start of the year. In contrast, investment-grade bonds are flat and have underperformed cash, as persistent inflation and uncertainty around Fed policy have pushed yields higher. Despite continued market concentration, diversification has added value so far this year, with emerging markets (+31%), U.S. small-caps (+22%), and mid-caps (+16%) all contributing to portfolio returns. After a strong run in technology, leadership is beginning to broaden and market swings are increasing. In our view, markets are transitioning from narrow to broader leadership, from suppressed to more normalized volatility, and from momentum-driven gains to a more balanced environment. This likely implies some near-term choppiness. However, with the economy remaining resilient and earnings growth still robust, we believe pullbacks should be viewed as corrective rather than trend-ending.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy 

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.} 

• Stocks waver on tech weakness – U.S. equity markets closed lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively, as weakness in technology shares weighed on sentiment. The Dow, which has less exposure to tech, held up better and finished near the flatline. Within the technology sector, semiconductors were the clear laggard, with the S&P 500 semiconductor industry down roughly 6% on the day. Overseas, tech-related weakness was even more pronounced overnight, highlighted by a 10% decline in South Korea’s KOSPI Index, which also has heavy semiconductor exposure. In our view, today’s pullback likely reflects profit-taking following the sharp rally from the March lows, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% and the Nasdaq up more than 20% since March 30. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield closing around 4.5% and the 2-year yield at 4.19%. In commodities, oil prices continued to trend lower, with WTI crude closing near $73 per barrel. Meanwhile, the dollar extended its recent gains against developed-market currencies, supported by a widening U.S. short-term yield advantage over regions such as the euro area and Japan as Fed interest-rate expectations have shifted more hawkish.
   
• Tech pullback sparks volatility – Weakness in technology shares weighed on global markets Tuesday, with all three major U.S. averages closing lower and the technology-heavy Nasdaq underperforming. Overseas technology stocks were also under pressure overnight, with South Korea’s KOSPI Index declining by 10%. With no clear catalyst driving the move lower, we believe today’s pullback likely reflects profit-taking following a strong rally from the March lows. Taking a step back, the Nasdaq had gained 26% from March 30 through yesterday’s close, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index had advanced more than 100% over the same period. Viewed through this lens, a period of consolidation is reasonable, in our view, after such a sharp move higher. Looking ahead, we believe the broader market remains supported by solid fundamentals. The S&P 500 is on pace to grow earnings by more than 20% this year, while economic activity has remained resilient. Job growth has rebounded in recent months, and manufacturing activity has improved following a multi-year slowdown. Today’s preliminary June reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI provided further evidence of this, rising to its highest level in four years. We continue to recommend an overweight to equities as part of our opportunistic asset allocation guidance. However, we believe diversification remains key to managing risk, particularly after the strong gains in technology and other growth-oriented segments of the market. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.
   
• First half of July has historically been favorable for stock returns – While we ultimately believe fundamentals and economic conditions drive markets — not the calendar — history suggests July has tended to be a favorable month for equities. Since 1980, the S&P 500 has posted an average return of 1.3% in July, compared with an average monthly return of 0.9% over the same period.* What’s more, the first half of July has historically been particularly strong.* Since 1980, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 1% from July 1 through July 15, with returns positive 68% of the time.* By comparison, the second half of the month has delivered an average return of 0.2%, with positive returns 55% of the time.* Of course, there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself this year. Still, when combined with what we view as a solid fundamental backdrop — supported by healthy economic activity and strong earnings growth — we believe the environment for equity markets remains positive.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy 

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Source for data cited: *FactSet, Edward Jones.} 

• Equities mixed at the start of the week – Sharp declines in technology stocks helped push the Nasdaq index 1.3% lower over the session and weighed on the S&P 500 index too. This continues the bumpy ride in AI stocks in recent weeks, but performance in other parts of the market was better, hinting at a potential rotation in market leadership, in our view. The Dow Jones Index moved higher to approach record highs, while the small-cap Russell 2000 index broke new ground, hitting a record close after a 0.8% gain today. In single stock news, SpaceX was down more than 10% following news of its plan to issue significant debt to finance AI investment. Otherwise, U.S. government bonds continued to struggle after last week's hawkish Fed meeting, with the 2-year U.S. Treasury note hitting a new 2026 high of 4.23% and longer-dated bonds selling off too. The rise in U.S. interest rates continues to support the dollar, which is trading at a 2026 high.
   
• Iran peace talks start in earnest – Newswires are reporting "major progress" between the U.S. and Iran as they kick start peace talks to address the issues unresolved in last week's interim two-month agreement. Headlines over the weekend highlighted ongoing tensions in the region, with Iran threatening to walk away from discussions in the face of Isreal's war in Lebanon, while President Trump warned of renewed military action. Hurdles to a durable peace agreement remain, but for the time being we are seeing tanker traffic through the reopened Strait of Hormuz pick up, even if this remains well below pre-war levels. Oil markets are trading lower today, with WTI oil at $75 per barrel, with the drop in crude prices, if sustained, to provide some helpful disinflationary relief for households in coming months, in our view.
   
• All eyes on the Fed – Lower oil prices will not show up in this week's May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report, which instead looks set to report another strong gain last month. Consensus forecasts look for a rise in headline PCE inflation of 4.1% in year-over-year terms, with the core measures seen at 3.4%. The spike in inflation, and easing concerns over the labor market, have spiked a hawkish turn in Fed communication, with around half of its interest-rate-setting committee signaling a hike this year. In response, markets are pricing a 0.5% increase in the fed funds rate over the next 12 months. We think interest rates are more likely to stay on hold, with lower oil prices to take some of the heat out of headline inflation in coming months, and core price growth seen cooling slightly too. However, the bar for a rate hike looks lower following the recent Fed pivot, and it would not take a significant disappointment on the inflation side to drive some modest tightening, in our view, as the central bank fine tunes policy to protect its credibility around its 2% inflation target.

James McCann;
Investment Strategy 

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg, FactSet}

There was no Daily Snapshot on Friday, June 19, 2026, in observance of the Juneteenth holiday.