Tuesday, 10/6/2026 p.m.

• Stocks trade higher amid lower oil and stable bond yields – U.S. equity markets traded higher on Tuesday, with stability in bond markets supporting stocks and the S&P 500 notching a fresh record high. Leadership was broad-based, with most sectors of the S&P 500 trading higher, led by the utilities and consumer discretionary sectors. Overseas, markets in Asia were mostly higher overnight, while European markets traded higher as well. On the economic front, ADP weekly payroll data showed that private employers added an average of 23,750 jobs over the past four weeks, the highest since June. In bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yield was slightly lower Tuesday at around 5.28% while the 2-year yield declined to around 4.8%. Oil prices finished the day near the flatline with WTI crude closing at just below $90 per barrel.
   
• Midterm elections and implications for investors – Midterm Election Day is just under one month away, providing an opportunity to review how markets have historically performed around midterm elections. For the full year, equity returns have historically been modest during midterm election years. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has generated an average total return of 3.6% during midterm election years, compared to an average annual return of 12.5% across all years from 1970–2025.* The two most recent midterm years were particularly challenging for stocks, with the index declining 18.1% in 2022 and 4.4% in 2018.* Stocks have bucked that historical pattern in 2026, however, with the S&P 500 up roughly 14% year to date including dividends, through yesterday's close. As we highlighted in our recent Market Pulse, the month immediately preceding midterm elections and the six months following Election Day have historically been favorable periods for the market. The S&P 500 has gained an average of 4.5% during the month leading up to Election Day, with positive returns in 78.6% of midterm election years.* Over the subsequent six months, the index has generated an average return of 15.5% and posted gains following all 14 midterm elections since 1970.* While there is no guarantee that history will repeat itself this election cycle, we believe these results help reinforce the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment strategy and resisting the temptation to play politics with your portfolio.
   
• Taking stock of bond market volatility overseas – Rising yields and concerns about elevated fiscal spending have not been confined to the U.S. bond market. French 10-year government bond yields rose above 5% late last week, their highest level since 2002. Although global bond yields have generally moved higher in tandem, the increase in French yields has been especially pronounced, with the 10-year yield rising from about 3.51% near the end of June to over 5% last week. The rise in yields reflects a combination of broader global bond-market pressures and France-specific concerns about the country’s fiscal position and political outlook. France has recorded sizable budget deficits in recent years and faces a presidential election next year. Investors remain uncertain about whether the eventual winner will be able to implement sufficient fiscal reforms through a divided parliament. Reflecting these concerns, the spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields rose above 150 basis points late last week, its widest level since 2011. From an investment perspective, we believe opportunities are more attractive outside developed international markets across both equities and fixed income. As part of our opportunistic asset-allocation guidance, we currently recommend underweighting international developed large-cap stocks, with France representing around 9% of the MSCI EAFE Index, as well as international bonds, with French bonds accounting for approximately 9% of the benchmark. Be sure to evaluate this in the context of your financial goals, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and time horizon. To view our full suite of portfolio guidance, check out our Monthly Portfolio Brief.

Brock Weimer, CFA
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet. 
Source for cited data: *FactSet, Edward Jones calculations.}