Tuesday 9/22/2026 a.m.

• Markets open higher as oil prices extend their decline – U.S. equity markets are higher in early trading on Tuesday, supported by lower oil prices and easing bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.95%. Internationally, Asia finished mostly higher overnight, while European equities are also advancing. In energy markets, WTI crude is extending its recent decline near $90 per barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia has been moving additional supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. dollar is little changed against most major currencies.
   
• Employment data shows firmer job growth – U.S. private employers added an average of 20,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending September 5, up from 16,750 in the previous report, according to ADP. This was the third consecutive report showing stronger job gains. In our view, the broader labor market appears to be roughly balanced. The unemployment rate is contained at 4.1%, while 7.3 million job openings continue to exceed the 7.0 million unemployed workers. Together, these figures suggest that labor demand remains healthy. Continued employment and wage gains should help support household income and consumer spending, key pillars of the broader economy.
   
• Bond yields edge lower as inflation expectations ease – Bond yields are following oil prices lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.95%. Part of the recent move appears to reflect lower inflation expectations, an important component of bond yields. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets declined by about 5-10 basis points (0.05%-0.10%) over the past week. We believe this shift may also indicate that the Fed's recent rate hike and continued emphasis on price stability have helped reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility. If inflation expectations remain well anchored, longer-term yields could face less upward pressure.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}