Thursday, 10/8/2026 a.m.

• Markets open lower as oil prices rise – U.S. equity markets are lower in early trading on Thursday as oil prices are extending their rise. Bond yields are also down, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.28% following solid demand at yesterday's auction. Internationally, Asia declined overnight, and European equities are also broadly lower. In energy markets, WTI crude is trading near $92 per barrel as energy companies temporarily close infrastructure ahead of Hurricane Isaias, raising concerns about supply disruptions. The U.S. dollar is little changed against most major currencies.
   
• Jobless claims edge lower – Initial jobless claims declined to 197,000 this past week, compared with expectations of 201,000. Continuing claims, which track the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits, rose modestly to 1.72 million, slightly above forecasts for 1.71 million and the lowest reading in three years. The figures suggest that layoffs remain limited and labor-market conditions are relatively healthy. Continued employment stability should help support household income and consumer spending, helping sustain economic growth. For the Fed, a solid labor market helps provide greater flexibility to remain focused on inflation, particularly as energy prices remain elevated.
   
• Fed minutes point to further tightening, but longer-term path remains uncertain – The September meeting minutes, released yesterday, showed that most policymakers viewed another increase in the fed funds target range as likely appropriate by year-end. This is broadly consistent with the Fed's September economic projections, which showed that 16 of the 18 officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. Beyond this year, however, officials remain divided: eight projected one more rate increase in 2027, while the remaining 10 expect either no change or a rate cut. We expect the Fed to raise rates two more times over the next year, bringing the fed funds rate to about 4.5%. We believe markets will likely view the Fed's rate hikes as a mid-cycle policy adjustment rather than the start of a prolonged tightening campaign. A gradual, well-communicated approach should be less disruptive than rapid tightening intended to restrain an overheating economy.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}