• Markets close lower as geopolitical tensions return to focus – U.S. equity markets closed lower on Tuesday with geopolitical tensions back in focus following reports of overnight attacks on Saudi energy facilities. Oil prices moved higher in response, with WTI crude rising to above $93 per barrel, while the S&P 500 fell by 0.6%. From a leadership perspective, most sectors of the S&P 500 finished the day lower, while energy and utilities were relative outperformers, each gaining roughly 1%. Overseas, Asian markets finished mostly lower, while European markets were little changed. Despite the rise in oil prices, bond yields finished the day little changed, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.79% and the 2-year yield at 4.39%.
   
• Geopolitical tensions in focus to begin the week – Geopolitical tensions are back in focus to start the week following reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities. Oil prices have moved higher in response, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, trading just below $100 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude above $93. Despite what the International Energy Agency has described as the largest disruption to global oil supply in history, financial markets and the global economy have remained resilient this year. Through last Friday's close, the S&P 500 had gained more than 12%, while international developed large-cap stocks had advanced more than 15% and emerging-market stocks had risen 27.1%. In our view, bouts of volatility could surface if geopolitical tensions escalate further, particularly as we navigate through a seasonally weak month of September. Nevertheless, we believe the longer-term outlook for stocks remains favorable, supported by healthy economic activity and robust corporate profit growth. Accordingly, we remain overweight stocks relative to bonds, with a preference for U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, as well as emerging-market equities.
   
• Investors await key inflation data – Inflation will take center stage for markets this week, with the August producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday, respectively. We believe these reports will be particularly important because they represent the final major inflation readings before the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting. Markets currently assign a roughly 58% probability to an interest-rate hike. Recent inflation data have shown what we consider to be encouraging signs of moderation, particularly among core prices, which exclude food and energy. Core CPI increased at a 1.6% annualized rate over the three months through July, marking its first three-month reading below 2% this year. Timelier measures of housing costs, along with modest wage growth, suggest that further disinflation may be in the pipeline. Nevertheless, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, and ongoing risks associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could place renewed upward pressure on energy and transportation costs. With labor-market conditions remaining healthy, the Fed is also likely to focus squarely on its price stability mandate. As a result, policymakers are likely to have limited tolerance for an upside inflation surprise, in our view.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

There was no Daily Snapshot on Monday, September 7, 2026, in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

• Markets close lower as strong jobs report raises expectations for Fed rate hike – U.S. equity markets finished lower on Friday after a stronger-than-expected August employment report increased expectations for Fed rate hikes. Futures markets raised the implied probability of a rate hike this month to roughly 58%, from about 50% yesterday. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for the path of short-term interest rates, rose to about 4.37%. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed near 4.78%. Internationally, Asian equities finished mostly higher overnight, while European markets also advanced. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies.
• August job growth exceeds expectations – Total nonfarm payrolls grew by 162,000 in August, well above the consensus forecast of 65,000 and the average monthly gain of 31,000 over the past 12 months. Leisure and hospitality, local government education, construction, and manufacturing were the largest contributing sectors, which together added 126,000 jobs*. Payroll figures for June and July were revised higher by a combined 55,000, further strengthening the employment picture. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, compared with expectations for a modest increase to 4.2%. Average hourly earnings were up 3.1% from a year earlier, a slightly slower pace than July's 3.2% figure. Taken together, the data suggest that the labor market remains healthy, with continued employment and wage gains helping support consumer spending and the broader economy. The unemployment rate remains below the Fed's longer-run projection of 4.2%, suggesting that maximum-employment side of its dual mandate is largely being met. This likely gives policymakers some flexibility to focus more of their attention on inflation.
• Yield curve flattens as short-term yields rise – Bond yields were mixed, with the 2-year Treasury yield up to 4.37% and the 10-year Treasury yield little changed. The move appears to reflect expectations that the strong jobs report could prompt the Fed to hike rates. With the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation at 3.7%, well above the 2% target, we think the Fed may be inclined to hike rates over the months ahead. We believe markets would likely view one or two rate hikes as a mid-cycle adjustment, rather than a renewed tightening cycle. The healthy labor market, resilient economy, and strong corporate earnings growth should help support equity markets, even if the Fed decides to raise rates, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data not cited: FactSet.
Source for all data cited: *U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics}

• Markets close higher as bond yields pull back – U.S. equity markets ended higher on Thursday, with consumer discretionary and financials leading gains. The 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.77% after Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller indicated that he would support holding interest rates steady later this month, provided upcoming inflation data do not surprise to the upside. In response, futures markets raised the implied likelihood of the Fed leaving rates unchanged this month to roughly 50%, up from 37% yesterday. Internationally, Asian equities finished mixed overnight, while European markets advanced. In energy markets, WTI oil extended its recent rise, trading near $92 per barrel amid continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies, consistent with the decline in Treasury yields.
   
• Productivity growth holds steady as labor-cost pressures ease – Nonfarm business sector productivity, which measures output per hour worked, was unchanged from the preliminary estimate, increasing at a 1.4% annualized rate in the second quarter, in line with expectations. This marked an improvement from the first quarter's 0.8% gain. Hourly compensation rose 2.6% from a year earlier, providing continued income growth that should help support consumer spending and the broader economy. Meanwhile, unit labor costs, which measure compensation adjusted for changes in productivity, were revised lower to a 1.2% annualized increase, slightly below expectations for a 1.3% gain. In our view, the combination of steady productivity growth and moderating unit labor costs is encouraging for the inflation outlook. If sustained, these trends could help businesses to absorb wage increases without fully passing along these costs to consumers through higher prices.
   
• Jobless claims edge higher but remain low – Initial jobless claims rose modestly to 206,000 this past week, slightly above expectations for 205,000. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, also increased to 1.78 million, but remained below forecasts for 1.79 million. Together, the figures suggest that layoffs remain limited and labor-market conditions are relatively healthy. Friday's employment report should provide a more comprehensive assessment of the labor market. Consensus estimates call for a gain of 65,000 jobs in August and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: FactSet.}

• Stocks rise as oil and yield rally slows- Stocks rebounded today after a difficult start to September, with small-caps outperforming, as the sharp rise in oil prices and Treasury yields showed signs of losing momentum. Despite the first advance in four days, investor sentiment remains somewhat cautious amid elevated geopolitical tensions following a new wave of U.S. strikes on Iran, which recently helped push oil prices to their highest level since July. Diesel prices remain a key area of focus, hovering near their April highs and potentially adding to near-term inflation pressures. On the economic front, the August ADP private payrolls report showed job growth of 38,000, slightly below expectations, with education and health services accounting for much of the increase. In corporate news, Dell shares surged 15% after the company reported strong quarterly results, providing another encouraging sign that AI-related spending remains robust.
   
• Yields and the Fed remain a key focus - Rising government bond yields have been the primary challenge for markets amid solid economic growth and strong corporate earnings, as higher rates continue to put pressure on equity valuations. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged slightly lower today after reaching 4.8% yesterday, its highest level since 2023. We believe several factors have contributed to the rise in yields, including uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path and increased bond issuance from both public and private borrowers. More recently, however, investor concerns have shifted toward the potential inflationary impact of higher energy prices. We expect that attention over the next two weeks will be centered on economic data releases that could influence the Fed's decision at its September 16-17 meeting. Last week, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish message, noting that economic growth remains solid, the labor market is stable, and inflation is still too high, suggesting that the Fed still has "work to do." We believe Friday's employment report, and perhaps even more importantly next week's inflation data, will play a significant role in determining whether policymakers decide to raise rates in September. Following Warsh's remarks, futures markets have increased the implied probability of a September rate hike to roughly 67%, up from about 35% before his speech.
   
• Navigating seasonal headwinds with solid fundamentals - Historically, September has been the weakest month of the year for stocks, generating both the lowest average return and the lowest probability of positive performance. This seasonal pattern can be amplified during Midterm Election years, when political uncertainty often weighs on investor sentiment. We believe context, however, is important. Periods of September and October weakness have typically coincided with deteriorating economic conditions or markets that were already under pressure, neither of which appears to characterize the current environment. Moreover, the historical Midterm Election effect has generally been short-lived, with markets often regaining momentum as election-related uncertainty fades. Underlying fundamentals remain constructive, in our view. AI-related investment continues to help support corporate spending, earnings growth remains robust, and current estimates point to solid U.S. economic activity in the third quarter. At the same time, credit spreads remain tight and financial conditions are accommodative. While seasonal headwinds merit attention, they are not sufficient on their own to derail the broader market uptrend, in our view.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source for all data: Bloomberg.}