Tuesday 9/22/2026 p.m.
- Markets close mixed as oil prices extend their decline – U.S. equity markets finished mixed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high and the S&P 500 little changed. Bond yields were also roughly flat, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.95%. Internationally, Asian markets ended mostly higher overnight, while European equities also advanced. In energy markets, WTI crude extended its recent decline, trading near $95 per barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia has been moving additional supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. dollar strengthened against most major currencies.
- Employment data points to firmer job growth – U.S. private employers added an average of 20,000 jobs per week for the four weeks ending September 5, up from 16,750 in the previous report, according to ADP. This marked the third consecutive report showing stronger job gains. In our view, the broader labor market appears relatively balanced. The unemployment rate remains contained at 4.1%, while 7.3 million job openings continue to exceed the 7.0 million unemployed workers. Together, these figures suggest that labor demand remains healthy but not excessively strong. Continued employment and wage growth should help support household income and consumer spending, key pillars of the broader economy.
- Bond yields little changed after their recent decline – Today's pause follows the recent trend lower for bond yields alongside falling oil prices. Part of that decline appears to reflect easing inflation expectations, an important component of bond yields. Market-implied 10-year inflation expectations in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) markets declined by about 5-10 basis points (0.05%-0.10%) over the past week. This suggests that investors view the recent decline in oil prices as reducing some of the upside risk to inflation. The move may also indicate that the Fed's recent rate hike and continued emphasis on price stability have helped reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility. If inflation expectations remain well anchored, longer-term yields could face less upward pressure.
Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy
Source for all data: FactSet.
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