Daily market snapshot

Wednesday, 1/28/2026 p.m.

• Markets edge lower on Fed Day – Equity markets finished modestly lower on Wednesday as the Fed held rates steady, as expected*. The S&P 500 briefly reached 7,000 for the first time before pulling back*. The energy and technology sectors led gains, while interest-rate-sensitive real estate companies lagged*. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.24%*. In international markets, Asia finished higher overnight, while Europe was down*. The U.S. dollar advanced versus major currencies — following softening in recent days — likely benefiting from comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent today that the U.S. will not intervene to support the Japanese yen*. In commodities, WTI oil traded higher, likely driven by a weaker dollar and severe weather in the U.S. that is impacting output*.
   
• Fed holds rates steady, as expected – The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its January meeting today, deciding to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.5%-3.75%*. The FOMC statement noted that the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, while inflation remains elevated**. After three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Fed appears poised to adopt a more patient stance***. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index — has moderated to 2.8%* but remains above the 2% target, and the pace of disinflation has slowed. In our view, monetary policy appears close to neutral, generally estimated to be roughly 0.75%‒1% above inflation****. We expect the Fed to pause for at least a few months before considering additional cuts. In our view, a stabilizing labor market —characterized by a slow pace of both hiring and layoffs — should help keep the Fed on track for one or two more rate cuts later this year, assuming inflation continues to moderate.
   
• Earnings season in full swing – Fourth-quarter earnings season hits its stride this week, with Magnificent 7 companies Meta Platforms (Facebook), Microsoft and Tesla scheduled to report after market close today, followed by Apple on Thursday*. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise about 9.6% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, led by the technology sector with over 25% growth*. Earnings growth is expected to broad-based as well, with eight of the 11 sectors forecast to report higher earnings*. We expect expansive earnings growth to support a broadening of market leadership. Robust profit growth is expected to accelerate through 2026, with estimates calling for a roughly 14% rise in earnings*. With valuations elevated relative to history*, we believe continued earnings growth will be a key element for further stock‑market gains in 2026.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **U.S. Federal Reserve ***CME FedWatch ****Federal Reserve Bank of New York}

Tuesday, 1/27/2026 p.m.

• Stocks trade mostly higher with earnings in focus – U.S. equity markets traded mostly higher on Tuesday, with investors digesting a busy week of corporate earnings.* The Dow was the lone major average to close lower, weighed down by shares of UnitedHealth Group, which came under pressure following an announcement from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services that Medicare Advantage payment rates will rise by only 0.09% in 2027.* Tariff policy was in the headlines again on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise the tariff rate on select imports from South Korea from 15% to 25%, citing delays in the country’s government in approving the U.S.–South Korea trade deal announced last summer.* However, the market impact was limited, with South Korea’s KOSPI gaining nearly 3% overnight.* On the economic front, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to 84.5 in January, the lowest reading since May 2014, with uncertainty in Washington, inflation, and labor‑market concerns cited as drivers of the pessimism in the survey’s write‑in responses.* In currency markets, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index was lower again on Tuesday, falling by roughly 1% and now down more than 3% since January 19.* Bond yields closed little changed, with the 10‑year Treasury yield finishing around 4.23% and the 2‑year yield at 3.57%.*
   
• Fed expected to hold rates steady – In addition to a busy week of corporate earnings, the first FOMC meeting of the year concludes tomorrow, with markets expecting the Fed to hold its policy rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%.* Recent economic data has been solid, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker projecting fourth‑quarter growth of over 5%.* Labor‑market data has also shown signs of stability, with initial jobless claims averaging just 202,000 over the past month and the unemployment rate declining to 4.4% in December, although job growth remains slower compared with recent years.* With the economy on strong footing, the Fed is likely in no rush to cut rates, with markets currently expecting the Fed will deliver its first interest‑rate cut of 2026 in June, followed by one additional cut in December.** Encouragingly, despite healthy economic activity, inflation has continued to trend lower, with core CPI rising 2.6% year‑over‑year in December and just 0.2% on a monthly basis.* In our view, inflation is likely to remain in the 2.5%–3% range in 2026, which we believe will pave the way for an additional 1–2 interest‑rate cuts from the Fed.*
   
• Earnings season in full swing — Corporate earnings are in focus Tuesday, with 20 companies in the S&P 500 announcing results today and more than 90 scheduled to report over the course of the week.* The industrials sector saw several announcements, with United Parcel Service, Raytheon Technologies and General Motors announcing better-than-expected earnings, supporting shares on Tuesday.* Within the health care sector, despite reporting results that were largely in line with expectations, shares of health insurer UnitedHealth Group—along with other health insurers—were under pressure on Tuesday following an announcement from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services that Medicare Advantage payment rates will rise by only 0.09% in 2027, well short of market expectations,* and potentially pressuring insurer profitability. At the index level, estimates call for roughly 7% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter, which would bring the annual growth rate to just over 11% for 2025.* Encouragingly, strong profit growth is expected to continue in 2026, with estimates calling for S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 15%, and all eleven sectors projected to see positive results.* In our view, a steady economic backdrop paired with strong productivity trends should pave the way for another year of solid earnings growth in 2026, helping to support the ongoing equity bull market.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **CME FedWatch Tool}

Monday, 1/26/2026 p.m.

• Stocks rise to begin the week – U.S. equity markets traded higher Monday,* with investors awaiting a slate of corporate earnings results to be released over the coming week. Tariffs returned to the headlines over the weekend after President Trump announced that the U.S. would impose a 100% tariff on Canada if it were to pursue a free‑trade agreement with China.* Details remain unclear on which goods would be affected and whether USMCA‑compliant products would be exempt. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded that Canada has no intention of seeking such an agreement with China.* While equity markets took the news in stride, tariff uncertainty surfaced in markets in the form of a weaker U.S. dollar and higher precious metals prices.* Additionally, reports that Japan could take coordinated action with the U.S. to stabilize the yen* also played a role in dollar weakness today, in our view. Overseas, Asian markets were mixed overnight, while European markets closed mostly higher.* Bond yields finished the day slightly lower, with the 10‑year Treasury near 4.22% and the 2‑year yield at 3.59%.*
   
• Earnings in the driver's seat — Corporate earnings will be in focus this week, with more than 90 companies in the S&P 500 scheduled to announce results, including four members of the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla).* Investors will likely pay close attention to whether technology company management teams expect strong AI‑related spending trends to persist over the coming months, particularly as the technology sector has lagged the S&P 500 so far in 2026.* With roughly 13% of S&P 500 companies having reported results to date, fourth‑quarter earnings are expected to grow at a 7% pace, which would put full‑year earnings growth at just over 11% and mark the second consecutive year of double‑digit earnings expansion.* Strong earnings growth is expected to continue in 2026, with estimates calling for nearly 15% growth and all 11 sectors projected to post positive results.* In our view, broad‑based earnings growth paired with a healthy macroeconomic backdrop helps support a diversified approach to equity sector positioning in U.S. stocks. As part of our opportunistic equity sector guidance, we recommend overweight positions in the consumer discretionary, health care, and industrials sectors—offset by underweights in consumer staples and utilities. We recommend maintaining neutral exposure across all other sectors.
   
• Strong durable goods orders point to robust investment trends – Durable goods orders for November came in well above expectations, rising 5.3% for the month versus estimates for a 1% gain, with the upside largely driven by a 98% increase in nondefense aircraft orders.* Core durable goods orders (which exclude transportation equipment) also performed well, increasing 0.5% compared to expectations for no change.* A 3.8% rise in computers and related products further suggested that AI‑related spending remained strong in the fourth quarter.* After a series of better‑than‑expected economic reports, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker estimates fourth‑quarter real GDP at a solid 5.4%, despite disruptions from the government shutdown.* We expect healthy economic growth to continue in 2026, though likely at a somewhat slower pace than recent quarters, with GDP growth settling near 2%.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet 
Magnificent 7 represented by Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and Tesla.} 

Friday, 1/23/2026 p.m.

• Stocks end volatile week on a quiet note - Major equity indexes were mixed after a two‑day relief rally, as concerns around the Greenland headlines faded*. Shares of Intel declined almost 17% today after the company issued softer guidance tied to ongoing manufacturing challenges*. For the week, stocks posted a modest decline, though energy and materials outperformed, and the trend toward broader market leadership remained intact*. Small‑caps, value‑style equities, and precious metals continue to attract increased investor interest, but today the mega-cap tech stocks advanced ahead of earnings*. Elsewhere, WTI crude finished higher at $61, while government bond yields and the U.S. dollar declined*.
   
• As geopolitical headlines ease, the focus shifts to earnings — With trade threats over Greenland now lifted, attention turns back to corporate profits, as one‑third of S&P 500 companies prepare to report fourth‑quarter results*. This week includes four of the Magnificent 7 (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Apple) and roughly half of the tech sector, which has lagged year‑to‑date as market leadership has broadened*. The S&P 500 is expected to deliver its 10th straight quarter of year‑over‑year earnings growth, with fourth-quarter profits projected to rise about 8%*. Encouragingly, the outlook continues to firm. Over the past six months, 2026 consensus earnings expectations have been revised higher, now pointing to nearly 15% EPS growth over 2025, with all 11 sectors contributing*. In our view, the fact that profits have accelerated without a meaningful increase in headcount highlights rising productivity.
   
• Fed is expected to hold rates steady - The first Fed meeting of the year takes place next week, and no policy change is expected, with bond markets pricing in only a 3% chance of a rate cut*. Recent economic data continue to show solid growth and steady labor‑market conditions, suggesting policymakers are comfortable pausing on rate cuts for now. The White House is expected to announce a new Fed chair soon, with Kevin Warsh or Rick Rieder reportedly the leading candidates*. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of President Trump’s attempt to remove Fed Governor Cook, with several justices expressing concern about preserving Fed independence*. This dynamic is one reason markets now expect a slightly flatter path of rate cuts, with the fed funds rate projected to end the year near 3.2% versus 3% priced in last month*. Despite the political backdrop, we believe monetary policy will remain anchored to the data. And regardless of who becomes the next chair, they will still hold just one vote on a 12‑member committee, with five votes belonging to a rotating group of regional Fed presidents chosen by their reserve banks*. These structural safeguards limit the ability of any one individual to materially shift the policy stance.

Angelo Kourkafas, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet} 

Thursday, 1/22/2026 p.m.

• Markets close higher as rebound extends – Equity markets finished higher on Thursday as the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge held steady at 2.8% in November, in line with expectations*. The communication and consumer discretionary sectors led gains*, signaling a risk-on tone to the trading session. Small-cap stocks added to strong gains in recent weeks and are now up 9.5% year-to-date*. Bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25%*. European markets also advanced after President Trump canceled proposed tariffs tied to a deal on Greenland*. The U.S. dollar declined versus major currencies*. In commodities, WTI oil pulled back amid easing geopolitical tensions*.
   
• Jobless claims rise less than expected – Initial jobless claims increased modestly to 200,000 this past week — below expectations for 207,000 — from 199,000 the prior week*. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, declined to 1.85 million, lower than forecasts to rise to 1.89 million*. These readings remain consistent with the slow pace of layoffs in recent months, in our view. The unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, while job openings contracted to 7.1 million in November, slightly below unemployment of 7.5 million*. We expect the recent low-hiring, low-firing backdrop in the labor market to persist, helping support gradual inflation moderation.
   
• Fed's preferred inflation measure in line with estimates – Headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation held at 2.8% annualized in November, matching forecasts*. Slowly rising goods prices, up 1.4% from a year ago, have helped offset services inflation, which has also cooled but remains elevated at 3.4%*. Shelter inflation slowed to 3.3%, a key driver in moderating services inflation*. Core PCE, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, also held steady at 2.8%, in line with estimates*. With PCE inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, we expect the central bank to pause rate cuts for at least a few months as policymakers look for clearer evidence of easing price pressures. The stabilizing labor market should help provide some time to assess incoming data, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}