Daily market snapshot

Thursday, 1/22/2026 p.m.

• Markets close higher as rebound extends – Equity markets finished higher on Thursday as the Fed's preferred PCE inflation gauge held steady at 2.8% in November, in line with expectations*. The communication and consumer discretionary sectors led gains*, signaling a risk-on tone to the trading session. Small-cap stocks added to strong gains in recent weeks and are now up 9.5% year-to-date*. Bond yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.25%*. European markets also advanced after President Trump canceled proposed tariffs tied to a deal on Greenland*. The U.S. dollar declined versus major currencies*. In commodities, WTI oil pulled back amid easing geopolitical tensions*.
   
• Jobless claims rise less than expected – Initial jobless claims increased modestly to 200,000 this past week — below expectations for 207,000 — from 199,000 the prior week*. Continuing claims, which measure the total number of people receiving benefits, declined to 1.85 million, lower than forecasts to rise to 1.89 million*. These readings remain consistent with the slow pace of layoffs in recent months, in our view. The unemployment rate stands at 4.4%, while job openings contracted to 7.1 million in November, slightly below unemployment of 7.5 million*. We expect the recent low-hiring, low-firing backdrop in the labor market to persist, helping support gradual inflation moderation.
   
• Fed's preferred inflation measure in line with estimates – Headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation held at 2.8% annualized in November, matching forecasts*. Slowly rising goods prices, up 1.4% from a year ago, have helped offset services inflation, which has also cooled but remains elevated at 3.4%*. Shelter inflation slowed to 3.3%, a key driver in moderating services inflation*. Core PCE, which excludes more-volatile food and energy prices, also held steady at 2.8%, in line with estimates*. With PCE inflation still above the Fed's 2% target, we expect the central bank to pause rate cuts for at least a few months as policymakers look for clearer evidence of easing price pressures. The stabilizing labor market should help provide some time to assess incoming data, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet} 

• Markets rebound on Greenland news – Markets rallied this afternoon after President Trump announced that he was no longer intending to raise tariffs on a host of European countries after a framework for a future deal around Greenland was agreed*. This news pushed the major large cap U.S equity markets up 1.2%, clawing back more than half of yesterday's sell-off, which was the largest seen since last year's "liberation day" tariff announcements*. Bond markets also rebounded after the announcement, with the yield on the 10-year U.S government bond falling 4 basis points (0.04%) over the session*. The response in FX markets was more muted, with a small appreciation in the dollar leaving the greenback still down 0.6% against a basket of major currencies over the week so far*. Gold moved off its peak after the news, but still registered a 1.3% gain over the day with the precious metal holding on to the lion's share of its gains seen after the latest outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices were steady at $61 per barrel*.
   
• "A framework for a future deal" – President Trump provided little color on the agreement reached over Greenland after a meeting with NATO secretary General Rutte*. The President commented that this would be "long term" and great for the U.S and NATO but did not specify if it grants the U.S ownership of Greenland*. Earlier in the day, the President had seemingly softened his tone slightly on this topic after a tumultuous reaction from markets, ruling out the use of force to acquire Greenland and not reiterating his threat to raise tariff rates on European trade partners*. We will be watching carefully for more details from the President and NATO/European counterparts on this agreement over coming days, and how this reconciles U.S security concerns and local sovereignty.
   
• Supreme Court hears Cook case – The Supreme Court hearing on the ability of President Trump to remove Lisa Cook from her position as a Governor on the board of the Federal Reserve started today, with a number of justices seemingly critical of the administration's case*. Justice Kavanaugh warned that the President's position would "weaken if not shatter the independence of the Federal Reserve" while Justice Coney Barrett argued that the risk to financial markets of ruling in the President's favor was reason for "caution"*. Following the hearing the odds in betting markets of Lisa Cook being removed from the Fed Board this year dropped**. A ruling against the administration would limit the ability of the President to nominate a new Board member to take Lisa Cook's place, and set a precedent that the Fed was insulated against this form of political interference*.

James McCann;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *Bloomberg **Polymarket} 

• Stocks trade lower with tariffs and geopolitics weighing on sentiment – U.S. equity markets closed sharply lower Tuesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling by over 2%, and the Dow losing 1.8%.* Over the weekend, President Donald Trump stated that eight European nations would face 10% tariffs beginning in February, rising to 25% on June 1 unless a deal is reached for the sale of Greenland to the U.S., arguing that the island is critical to U.S. security.* European officials met on Sunday evening following the announcement but have not announced any retaliatory measures.*
  
  With the European Union responsible for about 19% of U.S. imports and exports in 2025*, if the tariffs are implemented and stacked on top of existing duties, we would expect them to put modest downward pressure on U.S. and European economic growth while also exerting upward pressure on U.S. goods prices. A retaliatory response would be likely from Europe and could put additional downward pressure on U.S. economic growth by making U.S. exports less attractive. The announcement sparked a sell-off in U.S. assets, with stocks lower, longer-term Treasury yields higher, and the ICE U.S. Dollar Index down by nearly 1%, with markets reacting in a similar fashion to the tariff announcements in April 2025.* By contrast, precious metals surged, with gold up over 3% and silver gaining 6%.* European markets traded lower as well on the news, with the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down by roughly 0.6%.* Further adding to global uncertainty, long-term Japanese government bond yields surged following reports that the government could eliminate a tax on food for two years, stoking concerns over the nation's fiscal position.* The 30-year Japanese Government Bond yield rose by nearly 0.3%, to 3.87%.* 
  
  While these developments add to uncertainty, de-escalation remains possible, in our view, particularly with many global leaders meeting this week in Davos for the World Economic Forum. Moreover, despite the added uncertainty, we believe markets are entering this period from a position of strength. As we noted in last week's Weekly Market Wrap, economic growth has been strong in recent quarters, and we expect that resilience to continue in 2026. Corporate earnings have also grown at a robust pace, and expectations point to continued strength in 2026, with estimates calling for nearly 15% earnings growth for the S&P 500.* Thus, we maintain our overweight to equities versus fixed income, and we recommend investors use pockets of volatility to add to quality investments in line with their financial goals. In our view, asset classes such as U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks, international small- and mid-cap stocks, and emerging-market equities are poised to benefit from a constructive economic and earnings backdrop in the year ahead.
   
• Long-term perspective on market volatility – While the S&P 500 remains more than 10% higher over the past year*, today’s decline and the barrage of headlines can be unsettling for investors. However, it is important to remember that volatility is a normal part of investing. In 2025 alone, the S&P 500 posted a peak‑to‑trough decline of 19% in April, only to finish the year up more than 16% in price terms.* Over the longer term, the S&P 500 has, on average, experienced three to four 5% pullbacks in a calendar year and one 10% pullback.** Additionally, 15% pullbacks have occurred roughly once every two years, while pullbacks of 20% or more have occurred, on average, once every three years.** Despite numerous pullbacks along the way, the S&P 500 has grown at an annualized rate of more than 10%, including dividends, over the past 30 years.* In our view, this underscores the importance of sticking to your investment strategy through pockets of volatility rather than reacting to headlines.
   
• Fourth-quarter earnings season off to a strong start – Earnings season unofficially kicked off last week with several large U.S. banks reporting mostly solid results.* Earnings will be in focus this week as well, headlined by results from Netflix after the market close today and health care giant Johnson & Johnson tomorrow morning. With roughly 7% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported thus far, estimates are calling for roughly 7% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter, bringing 2025 annual earnings growth to over 11%.* Encouragingly, strong earnings growth is expected to persist in the quarters ahead, with analyst estimates calling for S&P 500 earnings growth of roughly 15% in 2026.* In our view, a healthy economic backdrop should help pave the way for strong earnings growth in 2026, which should help provide support to equity markets.

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet **FactSet, Edward Jones}

Friday, 1/16/2026 p.m.

• Markets close lower as earnings season kicks off – Equity markets finished modestly lower on Friday, as real estate and industrial stocks led gains, while the health care sector lagged*. Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%*. Internationally, Asia finished higher following the announcement of a Taiwan-U.S. trade deal that would lower tariffs on imports from Taiwan to 15%, from 20%, in exchange for a $250 billion investment in U.S. computer-chip production capacity*. Europe closed lower following President Trump's proposal of new tariffs on countries opposing U.S. control of Greenland. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies*. In commodities, WTI oil traded higher amid volatility in recent days, likely driven by geopolitical risks*.
   
• Earnings season off to a solid start – Fourth-quarter earnings season kicked off this week, with the major banks leading the way. JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley all announced earnings that beat analysts' estimates*. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise about 8.0% year-over-year for the fourth quarter, led by the technology sector with over 25% growth*. Robust profit growth is expected to continue through 2026, with estimates calling for a roughly 15% rise in earnings*. With valuations elevated relative to history*, we believe continued earnings growth will be a key driver of further stock‑market gains in 2026.
   
• Bond yields edge higher – Bond yields rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.23%*. The benchmark yield has remained largely range-bound between 4.0% and 4.25% in recent months*. Bond markets are pricing in a Fed pause following three consecutive rate cuts to end 2025**. Given inflation remains above target, we expect the Fed to hold steady for at least a few months before considering additional cuts. A labor market characterized by slow hiring and modest layoffs should keep the Fed on track for one or two more rate cuts later this year, assuming inflation continues to moderate, in our view.

Brian Therien, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet ** CME FedWatch}

• Markets stabilize on easing geopolitical tensions and strong earnings – U.S. equity markets finished higher on Thursday, with stocks responding positively to comments from President Trump that signaled military action against Iran is not imminent.* Strong earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor supported technology stocks, after the company announced better‑than‑expected earnings and sales while also raising guidance for the current quarter.* Additionally, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley each reported better-than-expected earnings, with strength in investment banking a bright spot for both.* On the economic front, jobless claims fell to 198,000 last week, while Federal Reserve regional activity indexes in Philadelphia and New York were better than expected in January.* The healthy economic data showed up in markets via strong performance in small-caps, with the Russell 2000 Index gaining roughly 1%.* In commodity markets, the easing in geopolitical tensions was reflected in lower prices, with oil down by nearly 5% and gold trading lower as well.* Bond yields finished modestly higher, with the 10-year yield climbing 0.03% to 4.17%.*
   
• Earnings in focus – Corporate earnings were in focus Thursday, headlined by strong results from tech giant Taiwan Semiconductor. Taiwan Semiconductor posted better‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter earnings and sales, while also raising guidance for the current quarter, citing strong AI demand as the driver behind the strong performance.* Additionally, investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley exceeded fourth‑quarter earnings estimates, along with asset manager BlackRock.* At an index level, S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow by roughly 7% in the fourth quarter and 11.4% for the full year in 2025.* Strong profit growth is expected to continue throughout 2026, with estimates calling for roughly 15% earnings growth, and the technology, industrials, and materials sectors all expected to see earnings growth of over 15%.* With valuations elevated relative to history, we believe strong earnings growth will be a key ingredient for further stock‑market gains in 2026.
   
• Jobless claims fall, signaling stable labor-market conditions – Initial jobless claims for last week fell to 198,000, below expectations for 215,000 and well below the 30‑year median of 320,000.* Continuing jobless claims also edged lower to 1.88 million but remain well above the lows of around 1.35 million in 2022 and above the pre‑pandemic average (2018–2019) of around 1.7 million*, perhaps signaling that those without work are having a more difficult time finding employment. Today’s jobless‑claims data follows last week’s employment report, which showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 50,000 in December, bringing the average monthly gain for 2025 to 49,000—a meaningful slowdown from an average of 168,000 in 2024.* However, despite slowing nonfarm‑payroll growth, the unemployment rate fell back to 4.4% in December, indicating a low-hire-low-fire enviornment.* In our view, 2026 is likely to be another year of moderate job growth, with nonfarm payrolls averaging between 50,000 and 100,000. However, we expect steady economic activity, which should keep layoffs contained, with the unemployment rate likely stabilizing around 4.5% in 2026.*

Brock Weimer, CFA;
Investment Strategy

^{Source: *FactSet}